2009 NCAA Tournament: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)

Last year, I did a series of posts analyzing the NCAA tournament based on Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings, so I am going to be updating those posts with the 2008 info and also analyzing the 2009 NCAA Tournament. I switched the format up a little for the analysis of the 2008 tournament as well.

Here's the schedule for the analysis I will be doing and links as I post each Part:

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)
Part II: Historical Analysis of Top Seeds (1 through 4)
Part III: Historical Analysis of Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)
Part IV: 2009 NCAA Tournament Game by Game Analysis & Possible Upsets

In this post, I am going to do a Historical Analysis of the Final 4 teams since 2004, using Overall Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency ratings. I will also give a list of the top teams this year in each of these categories.

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)

Here are the overall efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2008: Kansas(1), Memphis(2), UCLA(3), North Carolina(4)
2007: Florida(2), Ohio St(4), Georgetown(5), and UCLA(6)
2006: Florida(1), UCLA(3), LSU(10), George Mason(23)
2005: North Carolina(1), Illinois(2), Louisville(4), Michigan St(7)
2004: UConn(2), Duke(1), Oklahoma St(3), Georgia Tech(7)

Analysis: So the trend in the last 5 years is for teams ranked in the overall Top 10 in efficiency to make then Final Four. The one exception was George Mason, which was a once in a lifetime run and their ranking of 23 wasn't all that bad. Also, the # 1 or # 2 ranked team has won the championship in each of the last 5 years.

Here are the offensive efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2008: Kansas(2), Memphis(4), UCLA(7), North Carolina(1)
2007: Florida(1), Ohio St(4), Georgetown(2), and UCLA(23)
2006: Florida(2), UCLA(28), LSU(50), George Mason(49)
2005: North Carolina(1), Illinois(3), Louisville(7), Michigan St(6)
2004: UConn(4), Duke(2), Oklahoma St(5), Georgia Tech(25)

Analysis: Out of the past 20 Final 4 teams we can see the following trends:

- 14 out of the 20 teams ranked in the Top 10 in Offensive Efficiency

- 5 out of 5 Champions were ranked in the Top 5 in Offensive Efficiency

- 17 out of the 20 teams were ranked in the Top 25 in Offensive Efficiency, with the only outliers all coming in the same season: 2006

- 20 out of 20 teams were ranked in the Top 50 in Offensive Efficiency.

From these trends, you can see that any team ranked in Top 10 in offensive efficiency has a great chance to make the Final 4. To win the National Championship, it looks like a Top 5 offense is necessary. If a team is outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency than they are far less likely to make the Final 4, which means top teams like Michigan State(33), Washington(36), Wake Forest(39), Memphis(40), Louisville(43), & Purdue(47) would all be long shots this year. However, this season the efficiency ratings are extremely close to the ratings in 2006, which was the year three teams outside of the Top 25 in Offensive Efficiency made the Final 4, so you might not want to count out the group of teams above yet.

Here are the defensive efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2008: Kansas(1), Memphis(4), UCLA(3), North Carolina(19)
2007: Florida(12), Ohio St(15), Georgetown(20), and UCLA(2)
2006: Florida(5), UCLA(3), LSU(4), George Mason(18)
2005: North Carolina(5), Illinois(11), Louisville(14), Michigan St(25)
2004: UConn(5), Duke(4), Oklahoma St(12), Georgia Tech(3)

Analysis: Out of the past 20 Final 4 teams we can see the following trends:

- 11 out of the 20 teams ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency

- 19 out of the 20 teams ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency

- 20 out of the 20 teams ranked in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency

Defense wins championships? Apparently it does, but only to an extent. You probably need to be ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency to make the Fianl 4, but once you get there, since most teams are pretty equal on defense, the offense is what separates who wins and who goes home.

Here are the Offensive Effective FG% ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2008: Kansas(5), Memphis(53), UCLA(75), North Carolina(49)
2007: Florida(1), Ohio St(38), Georgetown(4), and UCLA(41)
2006: Florida(2), UCLA(36), LSU(131), George Mason(24)
2005: North Carolina(4), Illinois(5), Louisville(12), Michigan St(18)
2004: UConn(25), Duke(24), Oklahoma St(8), Georgia Tech(40)

Analysis: 4 out of the last 5 champions were ranked in the Top 5 in offensive effective FG%. UConn was ranked 25th, but was # 1 in defensive effective FG%. Other than that it looks like this stat is all over the place as far as making the Final 4.

Here are the Defensive Effective FG% ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2008: Kansas(9), Memphis(6), UCLA(37), North Carolina(90)
2007: Florida(18), Ohio St(42), Georgetown(10), and UCLA(76)
2006: Florida(16), UCLA(37), LSU(32), George Mason(10)
2005: North Carolina(36), Illinois(63), Louisville(12), Michigan St(136)
2004: UConn(1), Duke(13), Oklahoma St(37), Georgia Tech(5)

Analysis: Looks like offensive effective FG% is a bigger determining factor than defensive effective FG%, although it looks like being in top 20 of this category can only help when it comes to winning the national championship. The rest of the results just like the offense are all over the place.

2009 NCAA Tournament Analysis (Efficiency Ratings)

Top 10 teams in Offensive Efficiency:

1. North Carolina 123.9
2. Pittsburgh 122.9
3. UCLA 121.1
4. Arizona State 118.3
5. Gonzaga 118.0
6. Arizona 117.9
7. Oklahoma 117.7
8. Marquette 117.7
9. Syracuse 117.7
10. California 117.4

Other Notables(Rank): Duke(11), Clemson(12), Missouri(18), Kansas(19), UConn(20), Michigan State(33), Wake Forest(39), Memphis(40), Louisville(43), Purdue(47)

Top 10 teams in Defensive Efficiency

1. Memphis 79.4
2. Louisville 83.3
3. UConn 85.6
4. Illinois 86.0
5. Purdue 86.9
6. Washington State 87.2
7. West Virginia 88.0
8. Florida State 88.0
9. Missouri 88.2
10. Gonzaga 88.3

Other Notables(Rank): Michigan State(11), Washington(12), Duke(14), Wake Forest(15), Kansas(16), Pitt(34), North Carolina(35), Arizona State(36), UCLA(37), Syracuse(42), Oklahoma(46)

Finally, the Top 20 teams Overall Efficiency:

1. Memphis .981
2. North Carolina .967
3. UConn .967
4. Louisville .966
5. Gonzaga .965
6. Pittsburgh .965
7. Duke .958
8. West Virginia .957
9. UCLA .957
10. Missouri .954
11. Kansas .945
12. Arizona State .945
13. Michigan State .943
14. Purdue .941
15. Syracuse .940
16. Washington .939
17. Oklahoma .934
18. BYU .934
19. Villanova .929
20. Marquette .928

Note: 7 of the top 20 are Big East teams and you still think this isn't the toughest conference?

Other Notables(Rank): Wake Forest(21), Clemson(22), Florida State(35), LSU(46)

Final Analysis:

By the trends, Final 4 teams will most likely look like this: Overall Efficiency in Top 10, Offensive Efficiency in Top 50, Defensive Efficiency in Top 25.

Teams that fit all 3 trends: Memphis, UConn, Louisville, Gonzaga, Duke, West Virginia, Missouri

Teams that fit 2 of the 3 trends: Pitt, North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas, Michigan State, Purdue, Washington, BYU, Villanova, Wake Forest, Xavier

Note: Pitt, North Carolina, & UCLA all do not fit the trend because they have defenses outside the Top 25. However, they do rank within the Top 40 in defensive efficiency, so I wanted to note that they were very close to making all 3 trends.

By the trends, the National Champion will most likely look like this: Offensive Efficiency in Top 10, Defensive Efficiency in Top 15, Off. Effective FG% in Top 25, Def. Effective FG% in Top 40

Teams that fit all 4 trends: Gonzaga

Teams that fit 3 of the 4 trends: None

Teams that fit 2 of the 4 trends: UCLA, Memphis, Louisville, UConn, Purdue, Kansas, Wake Forest, Xavier, BYU

Note: If Gonzaga wins the tournament this year, I will be shocked. What this tells me is that this year is going to go against all the trends from the past 5 years and there is really no favorite to win the National Championship. 2009 should be more like the George Mason year than last year when we saw all four #1's make the Final 4. It also means that the teams just outside of the trends might be worth taking a look at and that we may have to look at turnovers and rebounding more closely this year.

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