Yesterday, the Phillies traded for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco from the Indians in exchange for minor leaguers Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson. The Phillies were able to acquire Lee without giving up any of the top prospects; including Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Dominic Brown. I’m not really sure why the Indians didn’t make the Phillies include one of those three or J.A. Happ in the deal, but if you are a Phillies fan you have got to love this trade.Basically what this does for the Phillies is it changes them from a World Series contender, who would most likely have to mash the ball the whole playoffs to win, to a World Series contender that can now beat you without scoring a lot of runs because of both Cole Hamels and now Cliff Lee. Joe Blanton has also been excellent over the past few months. In his last 10 starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 67 innings pitched. That gives the Phillies more than enough starting pitching to win the National League. If J.A. Happ can keep pitching well as the 4th starter than that would just be icing on the cake for the Phillies.
I would have to say that the Phillies are at least as good as the Dodgers now that they have Cliff Lee. I would even go as far to say that the Phillies have better starting pitching than the Dodgers do at this point without question. They also have a better offense although that one is a little closer. I give the Phillies a slight edge because not only do they have a higher OPS+ (106 vs. 102), but they also have a huge advantage in slugging (.450 vs. .412). Although having Manny Ramirez back probably closes some of that slugging gap.
The Phillies also have an edge in the field with an UZR/150 rating of 2.5 versus -1.7 for the Dodgers. However, that is also somewhat inflated for the Dodgers because Manny Ramirez will be in LF for the playoffs instead of Juan Pierre. Of course there is a huge trade off there on the offensive end as well. The Dodgers are really being killed by Andre Ethier in RF, who just happens to be the worst defensive RF in the majors. Sounds like Ethier is a future DH to me. Put him with Manny in the OF and you have to feel pretty bad for Matt Kemp out there in CF having to cover ground for both of them. Orlando Hudson has also been unexpectedly bad at 2B this year as well for the Dodgers.
Where the Dodgers make up ground big time though is in the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen is average at best this season considering that Brad Lidge (60 ERA+) has been awful up to this point. Other than Ryan Madson (126 ERA+), there’s not much else in the Phillies bullpen that’s healthy right now. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies end up using Pedro Martinez in the bullpen and possibly as a closer in the playoffs. Of course I’m sure the Phillies are also looking to trade for relief help as we speak. The Dodgers on the other hand have a very solid bullpen anchored by setup man Ramon Troncoso (206 ERA+) and closer Jonathan Broxton (144 ERA+). Guillermo Mota (199 ERA+) has also been excellent this season. Still today they acquired another reliever, George Sherrill (191 ERA+) of the Orioles. With so many playoff games coming down to the last few innings, it's no surprise the Dodgers wanted to strengthen their already large advantage in the bullpen.
At this point, I would have to give the Phillies a slight edge over the Dodgers in the playoffs if the Dodgers don’t improve their starting pitching. The defense and offense are not going to improve simply because it doesn’t look like LA will replace any of their starters. That leaves the starting rotation as the only place for any real substantial improvement in order for the Dodgers to become NL favorites. If the Phillies are able to improve their bullpen, then they would be the clear cut favorite in the NL in my eyes, unless the Dodgers surprisingly acquire Roy Halladay.
Of course there are two teams who could possibly screw up a potential Dodgers/Phillies NLCS: the Giants and the Cubs. The Giants have next to no offense (80 OPS+), but they lead the NL in pitching (122 ERA+) and also fielding (7.3 UZR/150). I’m not sure how much their recent acquisitions of Ryan Garko (111 OPS+) and Freddy Sanchez (109 OPS+) will change their offensive and defensive ratings, but they should add something offensively at least. However, with Tim Lincecum (187 ERA+) as their ace and Matt Cain (202 ERA+) a solid number 2 to go along with what has been an outstanding bullpen; the Giants are certainly capable of pulling off the upset in a short series if they can manufacture some runs.
The Cubs, despite their strong pitching (116 ERA+), have been underperforming most of the season due to their below average offense (90 OPS+). However, the bats have picked it up lately and the Cubs are just a half game behind a revamped Cardinals team. I could possibly see the Cubs getting hot at the right time during the playoffs and pulling off an upset as well. They certainly have the talent, but it won’t be easy.
I’m probably doing a disservice to the Cardinals by not mentioning them as well as a potential spoiler team in the NL. They have a solid pitching staff (111 ERA+) and the additions of Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Julio Lugo on offense could be enough firepower around Albert Pujols to help the Cardinals maintain an above average offense. They probably have as good if not better chance of knocking off the Phillies or Dodgers as the Cubs do.
More: MLB & MLB Weekly
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