Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:1. Memphis .978 (12)
2. North Carolina .973 (48)
3. Pittsburgh .971 (8)
4. Connecticut .970 (21)
5. Duke .964 (15)
6. West Virginia .962 (3)
7. Louisville .961 (32)
8. Missouri .958 (86)
9. UCLA .956 (27)
10. Kansas .955 (26)
Last Week:
1. North Carolina .978 (12)
2. Memphis .976 (48)
3. Pittsburgh .974 (8)
4. Connecticut .973 (21)
5. Duke .968 (15)
6. West Virginia .962 (3)
7. UCLA .960 (32)
8. Missouri .958 (86)
9. Arizona State .951 (27)
10. Louisville .951 (26)
Kansas(10) has worked their way into the Top 10 for the first time this season, replacing Arizona State(12). Yes, the Jayhawks are good, but they are probably third level good at best. They still have an outside shot at making the Final 4, but they would probably need to be in the right bracket. I do like that they have been improving throughout the season, so Kansas is definitely a team to keep an eye on down the stretch, because they may show us even more than they have so far. A Big 12 tourney championship would mean this team is probably going to be a handful in the NCAA Tournament.
Teams To Keep An Eye On:
Oklahoma: The Sooner are a frustrating team for me because they have been ranked outside the Top 10 in efficiency for almost the whole season, despite being what many see as one of the favorites to reach the Final 4. I have held back on calling them an elite team, because their defense is holding them back somewhat efficiency wise. Their weaknesses on the defensive side are not being able to turn other teams over(283rd), defensive rebounding(148th), and guarding against the three(201st). Right now, if they do get a # 1 seed along with UConn, Pitt, & UNC, then they would look like the # 1 seed most likely to get knocked off. However, they certainly have some high quality NBA talent on their team with Blake Griffen and Willie Warren, which is why I am hesitant to doubt this team. Also, efficiency wise, this season is as close to the year that George Mason made the Final 4 than any other recent season, which means even if Oklahoma does not have a high caliber defense, their overall talent might be enough to get them into the Final 4. It would have been nice to see Griffen play against Texas and Kansas though, so we could gauge just how good this team really is. Right now their best wins are against Purdue(17) and Utah(27) and while both of those teams are solid, they are definitely not the benchmarks to use when judging if a team is great. I'm not sure they can matchup with UConn, Pitt, and UNC and unfortunately we won't know the answer until well after we fill out our brackets.
Mountain West Conference: With teams like Georgetown continuing to lose and a lack of high quality mid-majors teams that deserve automatic bids, the conference that could benefit the most is the Mountain West. They are ranked as the 7th best conference about even with the SEC and well ahead of Conference USA and the A-10. They will almost certainly get 2 and probably 3 bids and may have a chance to get even more. There are currently 5 teams in the conference ranked in the top 50 in efficiency: BYU(15), Utah(27), New Mexico(30), San Diego State(39), and UNLV(49). Utah is currently leading the conference and will definitely be in if they win it and at this point it looks like they will at least tie for the lead. Utah also has a win over Gonzaga(13). BYU, in my mind should be in, since they have a victory over Utah State(50) and played both Arizona State(12) and Wake Forest(18) extremely close to go along with victories over San Diego State and New Mexico. UNLV sports victories over Louisville(7) and Arizona(33) and has beaten BYU twice and will have a chance to beat Utah for the second time on Wednesday. ESPN even has San Diego State in the tournament right now, which would just leave out New Mexico.
Players Catching Wreck:
Willie Warren, Oklahoma: Despite the fact that Oklahoma has lost their last two games, it has been no fault of Willie Warren. Without Blake Griffen, Willie has really stepped his game up, which could be a plus for the Sooners come tournament time. If Warren can continue his good play from the last two games when Griffen comes back, then Oklahoma will greatly strengthen theirs chances of making the Final 4. In the past two games, Warren has averaged 25.0 points and 4.5 assists, while shooting 18 of 36 from the floor, including 9 of 18 from three. Warren is most likely going to be a one and done player and has worked his way into a projected lottery pick with his recent performance.
Stats: 15.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 49.3% FG, 38.7% 3FG.
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Ryan Rossiter, Siena: You may or may not know that Siena is leading the MAAC right now with a 15-1 record. You probably should remember Kenny Hasbrouck from last year's team that upset Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament. However, chances are that you have never even heard of sophomore forward Ryan Rossiter, but he could be the key reason why Siena might be even better than last year. The 6'9 Rossiter is the 24th most efficient offensive player in the country and is 14th in true shooting percentage. He is a double-double threat and also active on the defensive end. He could be a key to any cinderella tourney run that Siena makes.
Stats: 9.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.0 blocks, 61.9% FG, 80.9% FT
Other Thoughts:
- Florida State is currently being projected as a 4 seed, but they rank 48th in overall efficiency, so they are clearly not even close to being one of the top 16 teams in the country. History tells us that teams that are seeded too high compared to their overall efficiency rankings generally get knocked off early in the tournament. If Florida State is given a high seed that is a 5 or better, look for them to be a strong candidate to lose in the first round, and I would not expect them to get past the second round, unless they are matched against another poorly seeded team. I will be doing more analysis like this again this year once all brackets are set next month, so be on the lookout for that.
Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):
Tuesday:
BYU(15) at San Diego State(39)
Florida(41) at LSU(40)
Florida State(48) at Boston College(59)
Wednesday:
Dayton(85) at URI(60)
Duke(5) at Maryland(66)
Kansas State(37) at Missouri(8)
UConn(4) at Marquette(21)
UNLV(49) at Utah(27)
Kentucky(26) at South Carolina(55)
Thursday:
Minnesota(47) at Illinois(22)
Purdue(17) at Michigan(69)
West Virginia(6) at Cincinnati(63)
Memphis(1) at UAB(36)
Arizona State(12) at Washington(16)
USC(35) at California(31)
Friday:
Siena(64) at Niagra(68)
Saturday:
Clemson(14) at Florida State(48)
Duke(5) at Virginia Tech(76)
Texas(25) at Oklahoma State(46)
Georgetown(23) at Villanova(20)
Notre Dame(32) at UConn(4)
Utah(27) at BYU(15)
Arizona(33) at Washington(16)
UCLA(9) at California(31)
LSU(40) at Kentucky(26)
Sunday:
Michigan(69) at Wisconsin(29)
Michigan State(11) at Illinois(22)
Ohio State(44) at Purdue(17)
Missouri(8) at Kansas(10)
Cincinnati(63) at Syracuse(34)
Marquette(21) at Louisville(7)
Tennessee(42) at Florida(41)
Monday:
Baylor(53) at Texas(25)
Villanova(20) at Notre Dame(32)
More: NCAA Basketball
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