All I've been hearing about in this draft is how great Ricky Rubio is and how teams like the Kings are going to regret passing on him. Well, it might be true that Ricky Rubio could turn out to be a great point guard, but I still believe he is highly overrated because he will never be the best player on a championship team. I'm going to try and prove the point that Rubio could turn out to be a great PG and still be overrated in terms of teams passing up on him in this draft.First, let's look at scouting report for Ricky Rubio to see what kind of player he will be:
Scouting Report (via NBADraft.net): NBA Comparison: Jose Calderon/Steve Nash
Strengths: One of the purest point guards to come around in a while … His vision and ability to deliver precise passes make him the ultimate distributor … Has good size for the position, allowing him to survey the court over top of defenses … A great and natural feel for the game allows him to see plays before they materialize, keeping him one step ahead of the opposition … He is extremely good at maintaining his composure when operating in the pick and roll, he does not panic when the defense converges, but rather shows patience and waits to make his reads … Loves to split the hedge on a high ball screen to get into the paint … Has a wide repertoire of moves off the dribble … Knows how to incorporate head, pass and shot fakes to get defenders off balance and to keep them guessing … Uses change of speed and direction extremely well, always mixing up the moves and staying unpredictable … His shot has come a long way in the last year or so, even to the point where he has become a serious threat from the outside … Defensively, he plays with a lot of energy and puts in a great effort to put pressure on the opposing ball handlers … Quick hands and terrific anticipation allow him to get his hands on a lot of balls … His game is mature beyond his years due to the fact that he has played on the top senior level for a long time … He has been on the draft radar for some years and has been able to maintain a fairly high level of play … Has shown that he can perform on a big stage by being a key member of the Spanish National team in the Olympics …
Weaknesses: Has good speed but lacks the great explosiveness that top tier point guards in the league possess … He is forced to shoot high amount of attempts in the paint because his marginal leaping ability makes it difficult for him to finish around the basket … Heavily depends on the pick and roll to create his opportunities and does not show a great ability to break down defenders in ISO situations … Has gotten better at taking what’s open, but his pass first mentality still gets him into trouble as he passes up open shots … His jumper is still not a finished product by any means … Because it takes him a bit to get his feet set, and his release point is fairly low he still looks like a set shooter … Has battled some injuries over the last year, which raises the question of durability and whether he will be able to handle the rigors of an 82 game season … His game has been up and down this season after coming back from his injury (Had a better overall season last year) … His performance on the international scene does not guarantee his game will translate well to the NBA
Notice that Rubio is praised for his passing abilities, which may very well make him one of the best passing PG's in the NBA some day. However, it appears that he does not have great explosiveness and is not a good leaper, which would make it tough for him to get to the rim and finish strong. It also seems that he is not a great shooter by any means and may not be as bad as a shooter as Jason Kidd, but he is not a Steve Nash type shooter either. However, Rubio is not as quick and strong as Kidd and probably never will be, so if his shooting ability doesn't improve teams may choose to play him like Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd by sagging off of him. The difference is that he doesn't have the ability to get to the rim like those two PG's do, which could definitely limit his effectiveness.
If he does develop an outside shot, then his best comparisons would be Steve Nash and Jose Calderon, who are both pass first PG's who lack great explosiveness. Nash and Calderon are both great PG's, but they also have trouble stopping penetration on the defensive end because of their lack of athleticism, which I think is part of the reason why their teams will never win a championship.
From the scouting report, we can come to the conclusion that Rubio is most likely going to be a pass first PG who will most likely not be a player who attacks the rim on a consistent basis. His basement is probably a Jason Kidd without the strength and speed of Kidd and his ceiling is probably Steve Nash with more height, which would make him one of the best players in the NBA. Of course, those people out there who are blowing up Rubio's game and saying that teams are going to regret passing on Rubio, expect him to fulfill all of his potential or else they wouldn't feel that way in the first. So in essence, they expect Rubio to be a great NBA player and win multiple championships.
Now let's take a look at the starting PG's on each of the last 20 NBA Champs and what role they played on that team (star, role player, etc.) and what type of PG they were (pass first, scorer, three-point specialist, etc.)
NBA Champions (starting PG):
2009 Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher
2008 Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo
2007 San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
2006 Miami Heat: Jason Williams
2005 San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
2004 Detroit Pistons: Chauncey Billups
2003 San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
2002 Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher
2001 Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher
2000 Los Angeles Lakers: Derek Fisher
1999 San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
1998 Chicago Bulls: Ron Harper/Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen
1997 Chicago Bulls: Ron Harper/Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen
1996 Chicago Bulls: Ron Harper/Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen
1995 Houston Rockets: Kenny Smith
1994 Houston Rockets: Kenny Smith
1993 Chicago Bulls: B.J. Armstrong
1992 Chicago Bulls: John Paxson
1991 Chicago Bulls: John Paxson
1990 Detroit Pistons: Isiah Thomas
Now if you look at this list, you can see that none of these PG's were star players who were pass first PG's. This leads me to believe that having a star, pass first PG is not an essential need for an NBA team to win a championship.
In fact, it actually looks like if a championship team has a star PG, he is usually the quick, attack the basket PG(Rondo, Parker, Billups, Thomas) rather than a pass first, PG who does not attack the rim.
The teams that won with PG's who don't really attack the basket like the Lakers, Heat, Rockets, and Bulls; all had PG's who were not the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd option on offense. Instead, they were role players who shot the ball well from the outside and protected the basketball. All four of these teams also had other guards who could dominate the ball at times: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Clyde Drexler, & Michael Jordan. In fact, the Bulls didn't even really use a true-PG during their second 3-peat.
Therefore, it seems like the past 20 NBA Champions are teams that either: have a star PG who attacks the rim or have a ball dominant, elite off-guard combined with a role playing, ball protecting, good shooting PG. The elite pass first guards like Steve Nash, Jose Calderon, John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams have won zero championships in the past 20 years.
So my point here is that Rubio might win a championship, but he is more likely to do so as a role playing, ball protecting, good shooting PG then he is a star PG who attacks the rim and gets to the line a lot. In my mind, quick PG's who attack the rim are worth high lottery picks, but role playing, ball protecting, good shooting PG's are not, which is why I don't understand what the big stink is over teams passing on Ricky Rubio. I guarantee that if Rubio does win a championship it will be because he is either playing with the best big man in the game or with a ball dominant off guard. I hardly doubt that he will win a championship while being the best player on his team, and maybe not even as the second best player on his team.
Players who aren't elite scorers or rebounders are more likely to be role players on championship winning teams and Rubio doesn't look like he is going to be anything more than a great distributor of the basketball. That's a great skill to have and will help a team win in the regular season and may make Rubio a star, but without a domininant big man or off-guard Rubio probably isn't going to win any championships, which is why I can agree with the logic of some teams passing on him in the early part of the lottery and it not coming back to haunt them.
This is why I think Ricky Rubio is overrated and not worth a high lottery pick. It doesn't mean he can't still be a great NBA player and All-Star. It just means that more than likely he is not going to be a player you can build a championship team around and history shows us that building a team around a PG does not lead to championships in general, unless that PG is 6'8 and named Magic Johnson.
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