Monday, June 22, 2009

MLB Weekly: American League All-Star Picks

Since the MLB All-Star Game is just a few weeks away it’s time for me to start naming my All-Star picks. I’m doing the AL this week and next week I’ll name my picks for the NL. Generally, I go with established players over the one-year wonders or breakout players. I think the stars should get the starting spots if they are performing well. I look at all the normal stats like HR, RBI, AVG, SB, OBP, & SLG; but OPS+ is the one statistic I look at most, except in some unique cases.

C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Stats: .407 AVG/14 HR/42 RBI/.475 OBP/.727 SLG/1.202 OPS/221 OPS+

Mauer is a no brainer choice for starting catcher in the AL. In fact, he’s probably the MVP in the AL right now. He’s batting over .400 and is actually hitting for power this season as well.

Next in line: Jorge Posada (.280 AVG/9 HR/29 RBI/132 OPS+) and Mike Napoli (.290 AVG/9 HR/27 RBI/125 OPS+) are having solid seasons, but they have no business starting in the All-Star Game over Mauer. Other than these three, there isn’t much worth looking at for catcher in the AL.

1B: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Stats: .286 AVG/20 HR/56 RBI/.387 OBP/.599 SLG/.986 OPS/155 OPS+

This was the toughest position for me to pick from between Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, and Miguel Cabrera. I chose Teixeira because he has the most HR, the second most RBI, and is a solid defensive 1B. Also, Youkilis missed a little time with injury.

Next in line: After Youkilis (.316 AVG/12 HR/40 RBI/160 OPS+), Morneau (.320 AVG/16 HR/57 RBI/159 OPS+), and Cabrera (.333 AVG/14 HR/44 RBI/145 OPS+); there’s a pretty deep group of 1B having All-Star caliber seasons.

Russell Branyan (.305 AVG/16 HR/31 RBI/165 OPS+), Lyle Overbay (.282 AVG/9 HR/41 RBI/146 OPS+), and Victor Martinez (.330 AVG/12 HR/53 RBI/143 OPS+) all would deserve consideration as reserves if this position wasn’t already so loaded.

2B: Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
Stats:
.267 AVG/18 HR/48 RBI/14 SB/.347 OBP/.535 SLG/.882 OPS/128 OPS+

Yeah, Kinsler is only hitting .267 this season and has really been slumping lately, but he’s still on pace for about 43 HR and 33 SB. He’s even improved in the field this season and is one of the top 3 defensive 2B in all of baseball after being below average at 2B for the first part of his career.

Next in line: Aaron Hill (.302 AVG/15 HR/48 RBI/113 OPS+) probably has the strongest case after Kinsler and I wouldn’t argue if he was the starter either. After that Robinson Cano (.305 AVG/12 HR/42 RBI/116 OPS+) and Brian Roberts (.291 AVG/7 HR/34 RBI/15 SB/110 OPS+) would both be worthy of consideration.

3B: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Stats: .309 AVG/16 HR/61 RBI/2 SB/.392 OBP/.594 SLG/.987 OPS/153 OPS+

Another no-brainer at 3B, since Evan Longoria is far and away the best player at this position. He should be locking down this position for years to come, especially if A-Rod starts to decline as he gets older, which may be what is starting to happen this season. It also doesn’t hurt that Longoria is one of the best 5 defensive 3B in baseball.

Next in line: Brandon Inge (.274 AVG/16 HR/47 RBI/130 OPS+) is having a career year up to this point and is the only other player at 3B who is worthy of any strong All-Star consideration. He’s also been well above average at the hot corer in the field.

SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Stats: .301 AVG/9 HR/30 RBI/14 SB/.371 OBP/.449 SLG/.819 OPS/115 OPS+

Jeter is having a bounce back year at the plate this season after being slowed down by an injured wrist last season. The move to the new Yankee Stadium hasn’t hurt either. In the field, Jeter has actually been a plus defender, although he still is not much more than average.

Next in line: Jason Bartlett (.373 AVG/7 HR/31 RBI/14 SB/158 OPS+) has been tremendous at the plate this season and nobody would have expected that coming into this season. However, since he missed so many games from being injured and Jeter is a veteran who’s played in multiple All-Star games, I couldn’t give Bartlett the starting nod.

OF: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox
Stats: .276 AVG/18 HR/66 RBI/5 SB/.393 OBP/.577 SLG/.970 OPS/144 OPS+

Bay leads the AL in RBI and has been excellent for the Red Sox since coming over from the Pirates. Boston couldn’t ask for anything more from a player who is replacing Manny Ramirez.

OF: Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
Stats: .316 AVG/16 HR/52 RBI/12 SB/.397 OBP/.601 SLG/.998 OPS/155 OPS+

Hunter is showing no signs of slowing down even at age 33. He is on pace to have the best offensive season of his career and that’s a good thing considering he is a below average defender in CF this year after so many great defensive seasons. Still, Hunter has to be strongly considered for first-half MVP in the AL.

OF: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
Stats: .307 AVG/6 HR/32 RBI/37 SB/.367 OBP/.435 SLG/.801 OPS/108 OPS+

Crawford doesn’t have a stellar OPS+, but he’s on pace for 85 SB and his range in LF is among the best in all of baseball.

Next in line: Johnny Damon (.280 AVG/14 HR/40 RBI/6 SB/127 OPS+) and Adam Jones (.316 AVG/12 HR/43 RBI/5 SB/132 OPS+) would be next in line right behind Carl Crawford for the last spot in the OF. I wouldn’t argue if someone felt like one of them should be starting over Crawford. However, both are surprisingly on the negative side of things defensively, so that’s part of the reason why I went with Crawford to start.

Nobody else really has a strong case to be a starter in the OF, but Ichiro (.358 AVG/5 HR/17 RBI/12 SB/133 OPS+), Nelson Cruz (.268 AVG/18 HR/45 RBI/11 SB/127 OPS+), Shin-Shoo Choo (.295 AVG/9 HR/41 RBI/11 SB/125 OPS+), & Curtis Granderson (.263 AVG/17 HR/41 RBI/12 SB/115 OPS+) are all having solid seasons and deserve strong consideration as reserves.
Of this group, Cruz, Ichiro, & Granderson are Gold Glove caliber defenders, while Choo should probably be a DH. After considering the defense of Cruz, Ichiro, and Granderson; I would probably lump them in with Damon and Adam Jones as potential starters.

SP: Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals
Stats: 8-3/1.96 ERA/106 K/101 IP/221 ERA+

Greinke has been a beast on the mound this season and deserves to be the starting pitcher for the AL this year. He has a ridiculous sub-2.00 ERA and is second in the AL with 106 K's.

Next in line: The AL is deep with pitching but the best of the rest are Edwin Jackson (6-4/2.39 ERA/72 K/94.1 IP/189 ERA+), Jered Weaver (7-3/2.53 ERA/78 K/96 IP/178 ERA+), Roy Halladay (10-1/2.53 ERA/88 K/103 IP/171 ERA+), Felix Hernandez (7-3/2.74 ERA/98 K/101.2 IP/156 ERA+), Justin Verlander (8-3/3.31 ERA/118 K/98 IP/136 ERA+), & Kevin Milwood (7-5/2.62 ERA/65 K/106.2 IP/170 ERA+).

Other American League Observations

- In the AL, 1B & RF are the deepest positions. AL 1B is especially loaded with 12 of the 14 starters posting an OPS+ over 100.

In fact, 8 of those actually have an OPS+ above 140, which means 8 of the top 17 hitters in the AL play 1B: Russell Branyan, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, Lyle Overbay, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Carlos Pena.

No AL RF has an OPS+ over 134, but the position is just as deep as 1B with 12 of the 14 starters having an OPS+ over 100: Michael Cuddyer, Ichiro Suzuki, Nick Swisher, Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, J.D. Drew, Jermaine Dye, Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu, Gabe Gross, Jose Guillen, & Alexis Rios.

- The worst position offensively in the AL is actually CF with only 4 CF’s having an OPS+ over 100: Torii Hunter, Adam Jones, Curtis Granderson, & Melky Carbera. Suprisingly that’s even worse than AL Catchers. However, CF like B.J.Upton, Vernon Wells, & Grady Sizemore will most likely be above 100 OPS+ by the end of the season.

- I didn’t mention Ben Zobrist (.293 AVG/15 HR/42 RBI/8 SB/166 OPS+) above, because he really doesn’t have a position, since he’s played about an equal amount of games in RF and at 2B. However, he definitely deserves to be on the All-Star team as a reserve and probably deserves to be a starter if he had played one specific position the whole season.

- The DH position won’t be in this years All-Star Game since it’s in a NL park, but there are some quality DH’s who deserve All-Star consideration. Jason Kubel (.312 AVG/12 HR/39 RBI/147 OPS+), Luke Scott (.298 AVG/14 HR/37 RBI/143 OPS+), & Adam Lind (.303 AVG/14 HR/48 RBI/139 OPS+) are the best DH’s in the AL this season and it’s possible they could make the All-Star team in the OF, so they are worth mentioning.

More: MLB & MLB Weekly

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