Overall Efficiency:
Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:
1. Duke .976 (19)
2. Connecticut .975 (38)
3. North Carolina .973 (36)
4. Pittsburgh .972 (15)
5. Memphis .966 (50)
6. UCLA .966 (62)
7. Louisville .959 (18)
8. West Virginia .957 (2)
9. Missouri .955 (78)
10. Gonzaga .954 (46)
Last Week:
1. Duke .986 (22)
2. Connecticut .977 (26)
3. North Carolina .977 (20)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (16)
5. Gonzaga .966 (46)
6. West Virginia .962 (7)
7. Memphis .961 (56)
8. UCLA .960 (69)
9. Louisville .958 (14)
10. Wake Forest .955 (78)
Missouri(9) jumped up 3 spots from #12 and moved back into the top 10 replacing a struggling Wake Forest(17) team. The rest of the list looks pretty similar to last week except for Gonzaga(10) dropping down 5 spots after their beatdown from Memphis(5).
Duke: Duke(1) had a big drop in efficiency rating and no longer is the clear cut # 1 team in efficiency. I'm not surprised they have come back down to earth because they didn't LOOK like the best team far and away to me. I think they just didn't have anyone who gave them a good test until the past couple weeks. I think UNC is better than Duke, but since it's a home game for Duke then I could see them coming up with a victory in that one tomorrow. It might be one of the few conference games left that UNC actually has a chance to lose.
Memphis & UCLA: Memphis(5) & UCLA(6) are really going to sneak up on people with the way they have been playing lately. Both of them lost some big time NBA talent off of last year's Final 4 teams and are clearly not even close to being as good as last season, but this year is a somewhat down year in college basketball. So even though Memphis & UCLA are not as good as last year, they still rank among the top teams in the country. Right now, Memphis is still lacking on the offensive end, but moved up 20 spots in efficiency this past week from 61 to 41, so they look like they are definitely improving there. They are strong in three areas on offense: protecting the ball(27), offensive rebounding(36), and getting to the free throw line(78). Their weakness right now and unfortunately for them, it's the most important offensive stat, is their effective FG%, where they rank 152nd. They'll need to improve that greatly before they have a legitimate chance at the Final 4. They are the top rated defensive in effective FG% though. UCLA on the other hand is lacking on the defensive side of the ball for most of the season, but has improved over the last few weeks. They are now up to 26th in defensive efficiency, which looks pretty solid next to the 3rd ranked offense. They are definitely a sleeper to make the Final 4 again this season. Their defensive effective FG% ranking(138th) leaves a little to be desired, but they do rank strongly in forcing turnovers(20) and defensive rebounding(45).
Pittsburgh: Pitt is now ranked as the # 1 team in offensive efficiency. In the past 5 years they have ranked: 8th, 12th, 21st, 19th, & 18th at the end of year in offensive efficiency. So offensively, this has been by far the best Pitt team of any in the past 5 years. The defense is pretty consistent with Pitt teams of the past, so I have to wonder if this is the year Pitt finally gets into the Final 4. Just taking a quick look at the # 1 team in offensive efficiency over the past 5 years: UNC '08, Florida '07, UNC '05 all made the Final 4, while Gonzaga lost in the Sweet 16 to UCLA in '06 and Wake Forest lost to St. Joes in the Sweet 16 in '04. However, Gonzaga(178) and Wake Forest(82) were far worse on defense than Pitt is right now and Pitt matches up better with the two UNC teams and Florida. This is definitely something I want to keep an eye on.
West Virginia: It might surprise some that a West Virginia team that has a record of 16-8 would be ranked as the 8th most efficient team in the nation, but all of their losses has been to top notch teams: UConn(2), Pitt(4) twice, Louisville(7), Marquette(23), Syracuse(35), Kentucky(31), and Davidson(42). Definitely no shame in any of those losses and WV has had the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Mountaineers might be able to sneak up on some teams come tournament time who don't realize how good of a team they are, since they are certainly battle tested.
Teams To Keep An Eye On(Or Not):
Michigan State: Okay, first off, let me say that I am not really too high on this Michigan State squad, but they have managed to sneak their way into the top in offensive efficiency at # 9. History shows that teams in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency are far more likely to make the Final 4 than those that aren't. It's probably the first indicator to look at when trying to predict who will make the Final 4. Meanwhile, the Spartans rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which is certainly good enough for them to advance deep in the tournament as well. However, a closer look at their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings shows their ratings may be a bit decieving: Effective FG%(79, 131), Turnover%(154, 201), Off/Def Rebounding%(4, 7), & FT Rate(58, 124). Notice that they pretty much suck in every offensive and defensive category except rebounding, where they are excellent, and they are also decent at getting to the free throw line. I'm always suspect of any team that has a high offensive rating because of their offensive rebounding, since it's not really a good thing if you are relying on your team to score off your own misses. Eventually, you would think you'd come across a good defensive rebounding team that would keep you off the offensive boards and your offense would tank. I'd also like to add that almost every team in the Big 10 other than Michigan State sucks at defensive rebounding, except for Penn State & Wisconsin, and it just so happens that Penn State was able to beat Michigan State. We'll see what happens when Wisconsin meets up with Michigan State. So, as of right now I'm still not buying that this Michigan State team has a Final 4 run in them, but because they are now in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, I'm not completely counting them out just yet.
Players Catching Wreck:
Marcus Thornton, LSU: It's long overdue for me to show LSU guard Marcus Thornton some love, but with LSU having won 7 of their las 8 games, now is the pefect time to do so. Thornton has been solid all season and actually is the 2nd most efficient player on offense in the nation of any player that played at least 40% of his team's minutes and been involved in at least 28% of the possessions used. Which means not only is he carrying a big load for his team, but he's also doing it pretty damn efficiently as well. When you are a guard who is shooting 49.7% from the floor and 41.2% from three, it's not hard to see what makes him so efficient. NBADraft.net currently has Thornton as a second round pick in their most recent mock draft, but he could be a late bloomer who is just undervalued at this point. Draftexpress.com also has him as a second round pick.
Stats: 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 49.7% FG, 41.2% 3FG
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Jermaine Dixon, Pittsburgh: Yeah, I know another Big East player, but this one deserves as much shine as any other player in the nation. After struggling for most of the season with his shot, Dixon has been playing great the past 4 games for the Panthers averaging 12.0 points a game, while shooting 65.4% from the floor and 69.2% from three. If Dixon can keep scorching the nets like that, Pitt should have an excellent chance to make it to the Final 4.
Stats: 8.8 points, 1.7 steals, 45.1% FG, 30.8% 3FG
Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):
Tuesday:
Marquette(23) at Villanova(14)
Oklahoma State(46) at Texas(27)
Florida(37) at Kentucky(31)
Wednesday:
UNC(3) at Duke(1)
Syracuse(35) at UConn(2)
Oklahoma(18) at Baylor(45)
San Diego State(25) at Utah(28)
Thursday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona State(12)
Friday:
Villanova(14) at West Virginia(8)
Saturday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona(43)
Kansas(13) at Kansas State(34)
Georgetown(24) at Syracuse(35)
Sunday:
UNC(3) at Miami(26)
USC(32) at Arizona State(12)
Monday:
Pitt(4) at UConn(2)
More: NCAA Basketball
Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:
1. Duke .976 (19)
2. Connecticut .975 (38)
3. North Carolina .973 (36)
4. Pittsburgh .972 (15)
5. Memphis .966 (50)
6. UCLA .966 (62)
7. Louisville .959 (18)
8. West Virginia .957 (2)
9. Missouri .955 (78)
10. Gonzaga .954 (46)
Last Week:
1. Duke .986 (22)
2. Connecticut .977 (26)
3. North Carolina .977 (20)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (16)
5. Gonzaga .966 (46)
6. West Virginia .962 (7)
7. Memphis .961 (56)
8. UCLA .960 (69)
9. Louisville .958 (14)
10. Wake Forest .955 (78)
Missouri(9) jumped up 3 spots from #12 and moved back into the top 10 replacing a struggling Wake Forest(17) team. The rest of the list looks pretty similar to last week except for Gonzaga(10) dropping down 5 spots after their beatdown from Memphis(5).
Duke: Duke(1) had a big drop in efficiency rating and no longer is the clear cut # 1 team in efficiency. I'm not surprised they have come back down to earth because they didn't LOOK like the best team far and away to me. I think they just didn't have anyone who gave them a good test until the past couple weeks. I think UNC is better than Duke, but since it's a home game for Duke then I could see them coming up with a victory in that one tomorrow. It might be one of the few conference games left that UNC actually has a chance to lose.
Memphis & UCLA: Memphis(5) & UCLA(6) are really going to sneak up on people with the way they have been playing lately. Both of them lost some big time NBA talent off of last year's Final 4 teams and are clearly not even close to being as good as last season, but this year is a somewhat down year in college basketball. So even though Memphis & UCLA are not as good as last year, they still rank among the top teams in the country. Right now, Memphis is still lacking on the offensive end, but moved up 20 spots in efficiency this past week from 61 to 41, so they look like they are definitely improving there. They are strong in three areas on offense: protecting the ball(27), offensive rebounding(36), and getting to the free throw line(78). Their weakness right now and unfortunately for them, it's the most important offensive stat, is their effective FG%, where they rank 152nd. They'll need to improve that greatly before they have a legitimate chance at the Final 4. They are the top rated defensive in effective FG% though. UCLA on the other hand is lacking on the defensive side of the ball for most of the season, but has improved over the last few weeks. They are now up to 26th in defensive efficiency, which looks pretty solid next to the 3rd ranked offense. They are definitely a sleeper to make the Final 4 again this season. Their defensive effective FG% ranking(138th) leaves a little to be desired, but they do rank strongly in forcing turnovers(20) and defensive rebounding(45).
Pittsburgh: Pitt is now ranked as the # 1 team in offensive efficiency. In the past 5 years they have ranked: 8th, 12th, 21st, 19th, & 18th at the end of year in offensive efficiency. So offensively, this has been by far the best Pitt team of any in the past 5 years. The defense is pretty consistent with Pitt teams of the past, so I have to wonder if this is the year Pitt finally gets into the Final 4. Just taking a quick look at the # 1 team in offensive efficiency over the past 5 years: UNC '08, Florida '07, UNC '05 all made the Final 4, while Gonzaga lost in the Sweet 16 to UCLA in '06 and Wake Forest lost to St. Joes in the Sweet 16 in '04. However, Gonzaga(178) and Wake Forest(82) were far worse on defense than Pitt is right now and Pitt matches up better with the two UNC teams and Florida. This is definitely something I want to keep an eye on.
West Virginia: It might surprise some that a West Virginia team that has a record of 16-8 would be ranked as the 8th most efficient team in the nation, but all of their losses has been to top notch teams: UConn(2), Pitt(4) twice, Louisville(7), Marquette(23), Syracuse(35), Kentucky(31), and Davidson(42). Definitely no shame in any of those losses and WV has had the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Mountaineers might be able to sneak up on some teams come tournament time who don't realize how good of a team they are, since they are certainly battle tested.
Teams To Keep An Eye On(Or Not):
Michigan State: Okay, first off, let me say that I am not really too high on this Michigan State squad, but they have managed to sneak their way into the top in offensive efficiency at # 9. History shows that teams in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency are far more likely to make the Final 4 than those that aren't. It's probably the first indicator to look at when trying to predict who will make the Final 4. Meanwhile, the Spartans rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which is certainly good enough for them to advance deep in the tournament as well. However, a closer look at their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings shows their ratings may be a bit decieving: Effective FG%(79, 131), Turnover%(154, 201), Off/Def Rebounding%(4, 7), & FT Rate(58, 124). Notice that they pretty much suck in every offensive and defensive category except rebounding, where they are excellent, and they are also decent at getting to the free throw line. I'm always suspect of any team that has a high offensive rating because of their offensive rebounding, since it's not really a good thing if you are relying on your team to score off your own misses. Eventually, you would think you'd come across a good defensive rebounding team that would keep you off the offensive boards and your offense would tank. I'd also like to add that almost every team in the Big 10 other than Michigan State sucks at defensive rebounding, except for Penn State & Wisconsin, and it just so happens that Penn State was able to beat Michigan State. We'll see what happens when Wisconsin meets up with Michigan State. So, as of right now I'm still not buying that this Michigan State team has a Final 4 run in them, but because they are now in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, I'm not completely counting them out just yet.
Players Catching Wreck:
Marcus Thornton, LSU: It's long overdue for me to show LSU guard Marcus Thornton some love, but with LSU having won 7 of their las 8 games, now is the pefect time to do so. Thornton has been solid all season and actually is the 2nd most efficient player on offense in the nation of any player that played at least 40% of his team's minutes and been involved in at least 28% of the possessions used. Which means not only is he carrying a big load for his team, but he's also doing it pretty damn efficiently as well. When you are a guard who is shooting 49.7% from the floor and 41.2% from three, it's not hard to see what makes him so efficient. NBADraft.net currently has Thornton as a second round pick in their most recent mock draft, but he could be a late bloomer who is just undervalued at this point. Draftexpress.com also has him as a second round pick.
Stats: 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 49.7% FG, 41.2% 3FG
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Jermaine Dixon, Pittsburgh: Yeah, I know another Big East player, but this one deserves as much shine as any other player in the nation. After struggling for most of the season with his shot, Dixon has been playing great the past 4 games for the Panthers averaging 12.0 points a game, while shooting 65.4% from the floor and 69.2% from three. If Dixon can keep scorching the nets like that, Pitt should have an excellent chance to make it to the Final 4.
Stats: 8.8 points, 1.7 steals, 45.1% FG, 30.8% 3FG
Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):
Tuesday:
Marquette(23) at Villanova(14)
Oklahoma State(46) at Texas(27)
Florida(37) at Kentucky(31)
Wednesday:
UNC(3) at Duke(1)
Syracuse(35) at UConn(2)
Oklahoma(18) at Baylor(45)
San Diego State(25) at Utah(28)
Thursday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona State(12)
Friday:
Villanova(14) at West Virginia(8)
Saturday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona(43)
Kansas(13) at Kansas State(34)
Georgetown(24) at Syracuse(35)
Sunday:
UNC(3) at Miami(26)
USC(32) at Arizona State(12)
Monday:
Pitt(4) at UConn(2)
More: NCAA Basketball
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