Congratulations to Randy Johnson aka The Big Unit for winning the 300th game of his career. Johnson is the 24th pitcher in the history of the game to win 300 games and he will probably be the last pitcher to win 300 games for at least the next 10 years or so.Here's the list of the active pitchers with the most wins with their age in parenthesis:
1. Tom Glavine (43) 305
2. Randy Johnson (45) 299
3. Jamie Moyer (46) 250
4. Andy Pettitte (37) 220
5. Pedro Martinez (37) 214
6. John Smoltz (42) 210
7. Tim Wakefield (42) 184
8. Bartolo Colon (36) 153
9. Livan Hernandez (34) 151
10. Tim Hudson (33) 146
Kevin Millwood (34) 146
As you can see, all the pitchers with more than 200 wins are 37 years of age or older. Andy Pettitte would probably have the best shot of this group, but he'd have to pitch until he was about 44 or 45 and he already considers retirement every season right now. After that some of the younger guys in their early 30's like Livan Hernandez, Tim Hudson, and Kevin Millwood are long shots at best considering they are not really ace pitchers.
Here's a look at some of baseball's ace pitchers that might have a chance at 300 wins:
14. Roy Halladay (32) 140
17. Roy Oswalt (31) 131
20. Mark Buehrle (30) 128
24. C.C. Sabathia (28) 122
28. Johan Santana (30) 116
38. Carlos Zambrano (28) 99
46. Jake Peavy (28) 91
For some frame of reference, here's the amount of wins the last 4 pitchers to win 300 games had at each age from age 28 through age 37 and the active pitchers who are that same age right now:
Age 28
Roger Clemens 134, Greg Maddux 131, Tom Glavine 108, Randy Johnson 49
Active: C.C. Sabathia 122, Carlos Zambrano 99, Jake Peavy 91, Brett Myers 73, Danny Haren 69, Joe Blanton 55
Age 29
Roger Clemens 152, Greg Maddux 150, Tom Glavine 124, Randy Johnson 68
Active: Jon Garland 110, Josh Beckett 95, Ben Sheets 86
Age 30
Greg Maddux 165, Roger Clemens 163, Tom Glavine 139, Randy Johnson 81
Active: Mark Buehrle 128, Johan Santana 116, Mark Mulder 103, John Lackey 92, Brandon Webb 87, Jason Marquis 86, Kyle Lohse 82, Gil Meche 80, Cliff Lee 79
Age 31
Greg Maddux 184, Roger Clemens 172, Tom Glavine 153, Randy Johnson 99
Active: Roy Oswalt 131, Barry Zito 124, Kelvim Escobar 101, Brad Penny 99
Age 32
Greg Maddux 202, Roger Clemens 182, Tom Glavine 173, Randy Johnson 104
Active: Tim Hudson 146, Roy Halladay 140, Javier Vazquez 131
Age 33
Greg Maddux 221, Roger Clemens 192, Tom Glavine 187, Randy Johnson 124
Active: None
Age 34
Greg Maddux 240, Roger Clemens 213, Tom Glavine 208, Randy Johnson 143
Active: Livan Hernandez 151, Kevin Millwood 146
Age 35
Greg Maddux 257, Roger Clemens 233, Tom Glavine 224, Randy Johnson 160
Active: None
Age 36
Greg Maddux 273, Roger Clemens 247, Tom Glavine 242, Randy Johnson 179
Active: Pedro Martinez 214
Age 37
Greg Maddux 289, Roger Clemens 260, Tom Glavine 251, Randy Johnson 200
Active: Andy Pettitte 220
I used Randy Johnson's win total at each age as a baseline because he had the least amount of wins at each age and still won 300 games. Amazingly he had only 49 wins at age 28 and even at age 37 was still 100 wins away, so he's recorded 100 wins in the past 8 years since he turned 37.
- C.C. Sabathia looks to be a strong bet to win 300 games. At age 28, he has 73 more wins than Johnson, 14 more than Glavine, 9 less than Maddux, and 12 less than Clemens. Since this is his 28 year old season, it's possible he could catch Maddux and Clemens, which would mean if he stays healthy that he would have a great chance to get to 300 wins in about 12 to 15 seasons. He would probably have to pitch into his 40's for sure.
- Two other 28 year olds with more wins than Johnson at the same age are Jake Peavy and Dan Haren. Since they have dominant stuff and have been healthy throughout their careers they could be considered for 300 wins, but are still long shots.
- Mark Buehrle is an interesting comparison to Tom Glavine, since they are both lefties with similar styles of pitching. Buehrle would need 11 more wins this season to have the same amount of wins as Glavine at age 30. Buehrle has pitched 200 or more innings for 8 straight seasons, so he is cleary durable and could probably pitch into his 40's and possibly win 300 games.
- Johan Santana is a bonafied ace on a perennial playoff contending team so he has a chance to rack up a ton of wins over the next 5 - 7 years. It's possible that by age 37 he has around 230 wins and he should have 200 wins easily. He would need need to average just 10-12 wins per season to have 200 wins by age 37. If he remains healthy and pitches a few seasons into his 40's, then Santana could definitely join the 300 win club. I think he's the best bet after Sabathia, but there's always the chance he turns out like Pedro Martinez too.
- Roy Oswalt at age 31 has 32 more wins and counting than Randy Johnson did, but I don't see him getting to 300 and I think 250-270 is where he tops out.
- Roy Halladay is an interesting case because he might have a good shot at 300 wins. He has 140 wins at age 32 and is still an ace pitcher, who could easily get close to 200 career wins over the course of the next 4 seasons. He would then be 35 and need around 100 more wins to reach 300 and he could have up to 10 more years to get those 100 wins considering that we have seen some pitchers play until they are 45 years old. He has to be right up there after Sabathia and Santana for best chance to win 300 games.
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