Here are updates on some of the players I highlighted last season in my Minor League Prospect Watch segment, via Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect list on ESPN:
Matt Wieters, Catcher, Baltimore Orioles, Rank (1): Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited. Wieters' similarities to Teixeira don't end with their common alma mater of Georgia Tech or the fact that each was selected with the fifth overall pick (Teixeira in 2001, Wieters in 2007). Like Teixeira, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus hit and power tools from both sides. He's a little more fluid from the left side with slightly better raw power, but he could stand on his head and still be short to the ball and get good extension on his follow-through. His plate discipline is strong and improving, and he's filled out since college, adding power to the point where he's at least major league average right now. He does glide a little bit on both sides, but it has no discernible effect on his ability to hit. Like Mauer, Wieters is an offensive catcher with a plus arm who makes everything he does look easy. He's consistently around 1.9 seconds from home to second - I've never gotten anything over 1.96 from him - and his receiving skills have improved dramatically since he entered Baltimore's system. And like Mauer, Wieters is big for the position; he's not as thick as Mauer, who was a high school football star, but he's 6-5 with long limbs and is, like all tall catchers, at risk for knee trouble over the very long term. If he has to spend the last half of his career at another position, his bat will play anywhere on the diamond. Wieters could start 2009 in the majors, although giving him a one-month stint in Triple-A would give Baltimore the advantage of another year of control before Wieters hits free agency. Other than that possibility, there's nothing stopping him from becoming an impact catcher from Day One.
2009 Outlook: Word on the street is that Wieters might start the season in the minors, while recently signed Greg Zaun plays behind the plate. This would allow the Orioles to keep Wieters out of free agency longer, similiar to the way the Rays handled Evan Longoria last season.
David Price, Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays, Rank (2): I would offer to introduce Price, but he seems to have already introduced himself. Price, like Wieters, is ready to play in the majors right now, although he has a little more development ahead of him that may have to come at the big league level. Price is primarily a two-pitch pitcher today, working at 90-94 mph as a starter but sitting around 94 as a reliever and bumping up to 97. His slider is his out pitch - ask the Red Sox about it - in the low to mid-80s with very good tilt; he can lengthen it against lefties or shorten its break against righties. He does throw a changeup, also in the low 80s, with good action, but it's far enough behind his other two pitches that the Rays had him put it aside for his September callup. He'll need to continue to develop that pitch and improve his fastball command to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter, and his workload may be somewhat limited since he threw only140 innings in total in 2008 (including Triple-A and postseason action with the Rays). Given more development time, whether in Durham or in St. Petersburg, he will become a workhorse at the top of the Rays' rotation who racks up strikeouts and shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate.
2009 Outlook: With the Rays trading away starter Edwin Jackson, all indications point to Price being in the rotation for 2009. Price could be the best rookie pitcher this side of Doc Gooden if he's at his best. He certainly has the stuff and makeup to be dominant on the mound.
Travis Snider, Outfield, Toronto Blue Jays, Rank (5): Snider was rushed to the majors this year, but to some degree it's his own fault, as he never stumbled after any of his previous promotions and continued to hit in the majors despite a big drop in his contact rate. Snider is a fair athlete who should have defensive value -- especially from his arm -- but the bulk of his value will be in his bat. His setup and swing are very simple, and his path to the ball is short, so he should be able to hit for a good average even if he's striking out 140 times a year, and he's already showing good power and projects as plus down the road. He looks a little stiff, but is an average runner and more than adequate in right field, with a 60 arm. Putting him directly into Toronto's lineup this year is probably too aggressive -- he was the youngest position player to get a major league at bat in 2008 -- but he should be a big league regular by Opening Day 2010 and an impact player two or three years after that.
2009 Outlook: Snider will be in the Blue Jays lineup somewhere in 2009, but whether that is in LF, 1B, or DH remains to be seen. The Jays were hurt by the struggling economy so a cheap and productive player like Snider is just what they need if they want to compete.
Dexter Fowler, Centerfield, Colorado Rockies, Rank (30): Fowler was one of the top players to just miss my list last year due to concerns about his swing. He has always been a plus defender in center with good speed. He showed patience as soon as he reached pro ball, but he had swing issues from both sides of the plate; it's not surprising that he had issues from the left side, since he's only been switch-hitting since instructional league in 2004, but he was leaking badly as a right-handed hitter as well. The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up both swings -- he keeps his weight back much better now than he did as recently as late 2007, and he does a better job keeping his hands inside the ball when he's hitting left-handed. He's still obviously more comfortable hitting right-handed, but the improvement on both sides is a great sign, and he shows above-average power from the left side when he gets his arms extended on balls out over the plate. Fowler's a plus runner -- albeit a below-average base stealer -- and covers a lot of ground in center. He gets good marks for makeup and work ethic, and given the strides he's already made, there's reason to expect further improvement.
2009 Outlook: All indications point to Fowler having every opportunity to claim the starting CF position for the Rockies. Fowler should be solid, but not outstanding as a rookie. He could have a similiar impact for the Rockies that Denard Span did for the Twins last season.
Elvis Andrus, Shortstop, Texas Rangers, Rank (39): Andrus had more than 1,550 plate appearances in full-season leagues before his 20th birthday, and 2008 was his best year yet in a career that's been more about tools and promise than performance. Andrus' only tool that doesn't project as plus is his power, which could end up as average because he makes such hard contact but isn't likely to surpass that. He does everything else easily: he's got an easy swing, using the whole field and working the count well for someone who doesn't take many walks; he's a plus runner; he has a strong, accurate arm and throws effortlessly; and he's a plus defender at short with a lot of range (something Texas hasn't exactly had over there for a few years) and fast hands. He's been so young for everywhere he's played that he hasn't had a chance to develop fully as a hitter, but it's a testament to his skill set that he has survived, and even performed well this year in Double-A with a .295 average and .350 OBP. He's penciled in as Texas' starting shortstop this year because of his defense, but if the line for 2009 is an OPS of .700, I'd take the under. Down the road, once he's old enough to stay up past the seventh inning, he should be a top-of-the-order hitter, hitting for average and getting on base while adding value with his speed.
2009 Outlook: Unless he fails miserably in the field, Andrus will be the starting SS for the Rangers in 2009. Michael Young has already been asked to move to 3B, which sets things up for Andrus to come in and play from day 1 of the season. I don't expect him to hit much, probably in the .250-.260 range at best, but he should be able to swipe a few bags.
Kyle Blanks, First Base, San Diego Padres, Rank (54): Blanks is a big human being -- he's listed at 6-6, 270 pounds, and it wouldn't shock me to hear either figure was low. The size means two things: he has a huge strike zone, and he has raw power. Blanks has defied the odds on a guy his size by making contact and hitting for average, reducing his strikeout rate and raising his batting average two straight years despite moving up a level each year; he has good hand-eye coordination and his swing is less long than you'd expect from a 6-6 hitter. He has a simple approach at the plate, but because he doesn't stride into the ball, he doesn't make maximum use of his bulk, and has less raw power than a hitter his size should have. In the field, he's limited to first base but should be no worse than average there; he moves around well and it's obviously hard for anyone this side of Chuck Knoblauch to throw one over his head. His home run output hasn't been bad -- San Antonio's a tough place to hit -- but it should be better; if the Padres can get him to use his whole body better, he'll have a chance to be a star, but it'll probably be somewhere else with Adrian Gonzalez standing in front of him.
2009 Outlook: Unless he or current Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez gets traded, then Blanks will be playing the 2009 in the minors again.
Ben Revere, Outfield, Minnesota Twins, Rank (63): Revere was a surprise first-round pick in 2007, receiving the lowest bonus of the round, a figure well below the commissioner's office's slot recommendation for that pick, but he's off to a roaring start to his pro career. After a month in extended spring training, he went to the Midwest League, as he was old for a high school product (he turned 19 a month before he was drafted), and hit .413/.463/.565 in the first half before cooling off to hit .340/.398/.417 after the break. Revere's best tool is actually his speed, as he's a plus runner and covers a lot of ground in center for that reason alone. But he also has shown he can make a ton of contact with a hard, slashing stroke despite a high setup and late trigger. He's strong for his size (5-9), but isn't ever going to hit for power between that and the flat plane of his swing, so he'll need to improve his ability to work the count as he moves up the ladder and sees his batting averages come down to earth. With his combination of speed and contact, he has a chance to become an impact leadoff man if he can keep his OBPs up, with the potential for plus defense in center if he improves his reads.
2009 Outlook: I don't see Ben Revere being in the Twins plans for 2009, but damn if he hits .379 again, they might just give him a chance towards the end of the season, especially if they have injuries.
Be on the look out for more Minor League Prospect Watch features once the season begins.
More: Minor League Prospect Watch
Matt Wieters, Catcher, Baltimore Orioles, Rank (1): Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited. Wieters' similarities to Teixeira don't end with their common alma mater of Georgia Tech or the fact that each was selected with the fifth overall pick (Teixeira in 2001, Wieters in 2007). Like Teixeira, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus hit and power tools from both sides. He's a little more fluid from the left side with slightly better raw power, but he could stand on his head and still be short to the ball and get good extension on his follow-through. His plate discipline is strong and improving, and he's filled out since college, adding power to the point where he's at least major league average right now. He does glide a little bit on both sides, but it has no discernible effect on his ability to hit. Like Mauer, Wieters is an offensive catcher with a plus arm who makes everything he does look easy. He's consistently around 1.9 seconds from home to second - I've never gotten anything over 1.96 from him - and his receiving skills have improved dramatically since he entered Baltimore's system. And like Mauer, Wieters is big for the position; he's not as thick as Mauer, who was a high school football star, but he's 6-5 with long limbs and is, like all tall catchers, at risk for knee trouble over the very long term. If he has to spend the last half of his career at another position, his bat will play anywhere on the diamond. Wieters could start 2009 in the majors, although giving him a one-month stint in Triple-A would give Baltimore the advantage of another year of control before Wieters hits free agency. Other than that possibility, there's nothing stopping him from becoming an impact catcher from Day One.
2009 Outlook: Word on the street is that Wieters might start the season in the minors, while recently signed Greg Zaun plays behind the plate. This would allow the Orioles to keep Wieters out of free agency longer, similiar to the way the Rays handled Evan Longoria last season.
David Price, Pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays, Rank (2): I would offer to introduce Price, but he seems to have already introduced himself. Price, like Wieters, is ready to play in the majors right now, although he has a little more development ahead of him that may have to come at the big league level. Price is primarily a two-pitch pitcher today, working at 90-94 mph as a starter but sitting around 94 as a reliever and bumping up to 97. His slider is his out pitch - ask the Red Sox about it - in the low to mid-80s with very good tilt; he can lengthen it against lefties or shorten its break against righties. He does throw a changeup, also in the low 80s, with good action, but it's far enough behind his other two pitches that the Rays had him put it aside for his September callup. He'll need to continue to develop that pitch and improve his fastball command to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter, and his workload may be somewhat limited since he threw only140 innings in total in 2008 (including Triple-A and postseason action with the Rays). Given more development time, whether in Durham or in St. Petersburg, he will become a workhorse at the top of the Rays' rotation who racks up strikeouts and shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate.
2009 Outlook: With the Rays trading away starter Edwin Jackson, all indications point to Price being in the rotation for 2009. Price could be the best rookie pitcher this side of Doc Gooden if he's at his best. He certainly has the stuff and makeup to be dominant on the mound.
Travis Snider, Outfield, Toronto Blue Jays, Rank (5): Snider was rushed to the majors this year, but to some degree it's his own fault, as he never stumbled after any of his previous promotions and continued to hit in the majors despite a big drop in his contact rate. Snider is a fair athlete who should have defensive value -- especially from his arm -- but the bulk of his value will be in his bat. His setup and swing are very simple, and his path to the ball is short, so he should be able to hit for a good average even if he's striking out 140 times a year, and he's already showing good power and projects as plus down the road. He looks a little stiff, but is an average runner and more than adequate in right field, with a 60 arm. Putting him directly into Toronto's lineup this year is probably too aggressive -- he was the youngest position player to get a major league at bat in 2008 -- but he should be a big league regular by Opening Day 2010 and an impact player two or three years after that.
2009 Outlook: Snider will be in the Blue Jays lineup somewhere in 2009, but whether that is in LF, 1B, or DH remains to be seen. The Jays were hurt by the struggling economy so a cheap and productive player like Snider is just what they need if they want to compete.
Dexter Fowler, Centerfield, Colorado Rockies, Rank (30): Fowler was one of the top players to just miss my list last year due to concerns about his swing. He has always been a plus defender in center with good speed. He showed patience as soon as he reached pro ball, but he had swing issues from both sides of the plate; it's not surprising that he had issues from the left side, since he's only been switch-hitting since instructional league in 2004, but he was leaking badly as a right-handed hitter as well. The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up both swings -- he keeps his weight back much better now than he did as recently as late 2007, and he does a better job keeping his hands inside the ball when he's hitting left-handed. He's still obviously more comfortable hitting right-handed, but the improvement on both sides is a great sign, and he shows above-average power from the left side when he gets his arms extended on balls out over the plate. Fowler's a plus runner -- albeit a below-average base stealer -- and covers a lot of ground in center. He gets good marks for makeup and work ethic, and given the strides he's already made, there's reason to expect further improvement.
2009 Outlook: All indications point to Fowler having every opportunity to claim the starting CF position for the Rockies. Fowler should be solid, but not outstanding as a rookie. He could have a similiar impact for the Rockies that Denard Span did for the Twins last season.
Elvis Andrus, Shortstop, Texas Rangers, Rank (39): Andrus had more than 1,550 plate appearances in full-season leagues before his 20th birthday, and 2008 was his best year yet in a career that's been more about tools and promise than performance. Andrus' only tool that doesn't project as plus is his power, which could end up as average because he makes such hard contact but isn't likely to surpass that. He does everything else easily: he's got an easy swing, using the whole field and working the count well for someone who doesn't take many walks; he's a plus runner; he has a strong, accurate arm and throws effortlessly; and he's a plus defender at short with a lot of range (something Texas hasn't exactly had over there for a few years) and fast hands. He's been so young for everywhere he's played that he hasn't had a chance to develop fully as a hitter, but it's a testament to his skill set that he has survived, and even performed well this year in Double-A with a .295 average and .350 OBP. He's penciled in as Texas' starting shortstop this year because of his defense, but if the line for 2009 is an OPS of .700, I'd take the under. Down the road, once he's old enough to stay up past the seventh inning, he should be a top-of-the-order hitter, hitting for average and getting on base while adding value with his speed.
2009 Outlook: Unless he fails miserably in the field, Andrus will be the starting SS for the Rangers in 2009. Michael Young has already been asked to move to 3B, which sets things up for Andrus to come in and play from day 1 of the season. I don't expect him to hit much, probably in the .250-.260 range at best, but he should be able to swipe a few bags.
Kyle Blanks, First Base, San Diego Padres, Rank (54): Blanks is a big human being -- he's listed at 6-6, 270 pounds, and it wouldn't shock me to hear either figure was low. The size means two things: he has a huge strike zone, and he has raw power. Blanks has defied the odds on a guy his size by making contact and hitting for average, reducing his strikeout rate and raising his batting average two straight years despite moving up a level each year; he has good hand-eye coordination and his swing is less long than you'd expect from a 6-6 hitter. He has a simple approach at the plate, but because he doesn't stride into the ball, he doesn't make maximum use of his bulk, and has less raw power than a hitter his size should have. In the field, he's limited to first base but should be no worse than average there; he moves around well and it's obviously hard for anyone this side of Chuck Knoblauch to throw one over his head. His home run output hasn't been bad -- San Antonio's a tough place to hit -- but it should be better; if the Padres can get him to use his whole body better, he'll have a chance to be a star, but it'll probably be somewhere else with Adrian Gonzalez standing in front of him.
2009 Outlook: Unless he or current Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez gets traded, then Blanks will be playing the 2009 in the minors again.
Ben Revere, Outfield, Minnesota Twins, Rank (63): Revere was a surprise first-round pick in 2007, receiving the lowest bonus of the round, a figure well below the commissioner's office's slot recommendation for that pick, but he's off to a roaring start to his pro career. After a month in extended spring training, he went to the Midwest League, as he was old for a high school product (he turned 19 a month before he was drafted), and hit .413/.463/.565 in the first half before cooling off to hit .340/.398/.417 after the break. Revere's best tool is actually his speed, as he's a plus runner and covers a lot of ground in center for that reason alone. But he also has shown he can make a ton of contact with a hard, slashing stroke despite a high setup and late trigger. He's strong for his size (5-9), but isn't ever going to hit for power between that and the flat plane of his swing, so he'll need to improve his ability to work the count as he moves up the ladder and sees his batting averages come down to earth. With his combination of speed and contact, he has a chance to become an impact leadoff man if he can keep his OBPs up, with the potential for plus defense in center if he improves his reads.
2009 Outlook: I don't see Ben Revere being in the Twins plans for 2009, but damn if he hits .379 again, they might just give him a chance towards the end of the season, especially if they have injuries.
Be on the look out for more Minor League Prospect Watch features once the season begins.
More: Minor League Prospect Watch
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