Overall Efficiency:Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:
1. Duke .987 (25)
2. North Carolina .978 (27)
3. Pittsburgh .975 (19)
4. Gonzaga .968 (42)
5. Arizona State .965 (28)
6. Connecticut .965 (39)
7. Louisville .962 (22)
8. Missouri .960 (170)
9. Memphis .959 (48)
10. West Virginia .958 (9)
Last Week:
1. Duke .982 (52)
2. North Carolina .976 (91)
3. Gonzaga .976 (44)
4. Pittsburgh .971 (16)
5. Georgetown .970 (102)
6. Wake Forest .967 (2)
7. Connecticut .967 (64)
8. Missouri .966 (23)
9. Arizona State .963 (214)
10. Memphis .959 (138)
Wake Forest(11) & Georgetown(13) both dropped out of the Top 10 in efficiency and were replaced by a red hot Lousiville(7) team and West Virginia(10). The reason for Wake Forest's drop out of the Top 10 is their offense, which ranks only 47th in Off. Efficiency. Most of that is because they don't shoot the 3 well(190th) and they turn the ball over too much(194th). Georgetown has lost three straight to Duke(1), West Virginia(10), and Seton Hall(99). The first two losses are understandable, but the Seton Hall loss should cause some alarm.
Louisville: This team has been on a tear of late winning 7 in a row, including victories over Pittsburgh(3), Kentucky(20), Villanova(26), Syracuse(33), and Notre Dame(50). They have been doing it with exceptional defense and are rated as the # 1 team in Def. Efficiency. However, the offense is still not so hot and I can seem them getting knocked off in the tournament if the offense doesn't pick it up a notch or two. They are ranked 82nd overall in Off. Efficiency, including 146th in Effective FG%, 190th in 3-Point%, and 205th in Free Throw Rate. Basically, they don't shoot the ball well from the floor, especially from deep, and they don't get to the free throw line enough to make up for their poor free throw shooting. I don't know about you, but I don't like that combination around tournament time. If the offense doesn't improve, then they'll only advance deep if they keep playing teams that play a more grind it out style and it's unlikely that will happen all the way to the Final 4.
Missouri: One thing you will notice about the Top 10 teams is that Missouri has played far and away the WORST schedule of those teams, ranking 170th overall. The next highest is Memphis at 49th, which means all the other teams have been pretty well tested. I have to wonder if Missouri ranks so high in overall efficiency because they have been rolling up big numbers on inferior opponents. They have beaten some decemt teams, USC(31), Cal(32), OK State(34), but I'm not sure how they would far against Top 10 teams. They do have a couple of semi-tough games coming up against Baylor(28) and Texas(27), but I'm not sure those games will tell us much about Missouri. We may have to wait until they matchup with Oklahoma(12) in March before we have a good read on them.
West Virginia: You might look at West Virginia's 13-5 record and wonder why they are in the Top 10 in overall efficiency. I know I was wondering the same, until I looked at who they have lost to: Pittsburgh(3), UConn(6), Kentucky(20), Marquette(22), & Davidson(35). There's not a bad team in that group and it's possible that West Va. played well against those teams and just didn't play well enough to win. The key to beating them is to rebound the ball well on the defensive end. They shoot the ball poorly from the floor and rank just 163rd in Eff. FG%, but since they are 4th in offensive rebounding, they make up for it with putbacks and extra chances on the offensive end. They also are 6th overall in defense, which means you need to be pretty good offensively to beat them as well.
Duke: Duke is really pulling away from the field and I'm starting to wonder if they really are that much better than everyone else. We should find out Wednesday, when they travel to play Wake Forest, just how good they are. If you are looking for a weakness, the Blue Devils do not shoot the 3 all that well, ranking 129th in the country. A good defensive team like Wake may also be able to slow them down offensively a little bit as well because they rank 52nd in Effective FG%, which is solid, but not great.
Gonzaga: Gonzaga is pretty much an afterthought in most people's minds at this point, but the rankings show they are still one of the best teams in the country, so don't count them out yet. That will especially be true if they are seeded a lot lower than they should be, which will most likely be the case. I still think they are a long shot for the Final 4, but with the right matchups, they could still go deep into the tournament.
Teams To Keep An Eye On:
Marquette: Marquette(22) is a team that has been on fire lately with 10 straight wins. They are currently 15th in Offensive Efficiency and 51st in Defensive Efficiency. They are solid in every area on offense, but are particulary good at not turning the ball over(10th) and getting to the free throw line(15th). Their defense is what is holding them back from being ranked a lot higher, since they have a rating higher than 100th best in the country in almost every defensive category, including Eff. FG%(128th). Despite their defensive problems, I still think they could be dangerous in the tournament, because their offense is so good. I love the play of Jerel McNeal(see below), as well as, Wesley Matthews(19.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 51.6% FG, 37.7% 3FG) and Lazar Haywood(16.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 47.9% FG, 36.7% 3FG). If Dominic James ever turns it up on offense, then Marquette could be scary good on offense.
Washington: The Huskies(19) are 6-1 in the Pac-10 and have won 4 straight games, including victories over UCLA(14) and USC(31). There next best wins are against OK State(34) and Cleveland State(65). Not actually big wins, but you should still keep an eye on Washington in the Pac-10 at least. They are similar to West Virginia in that they miss a lot of shots(138th in Eff. FG%), but they are first in the country in offensive rebounding, which gives them extra chances to score. Defensively, they are a solid 20th, but aren't great in any one particular area. I don't know how far they will go in the tournament, but they should be solid for the rest of Pac-10 play. They are led by Isiah Thomas(16.3 points, 1.2 steals, 33.7% 3FG), Jon Brockman(15.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 52.2% FG), and Justin Dentmon(14.3 points, 1.3 steals, 47.3% FG, 41.4% 3FG).
Players Catching Wreck:
Jerel McNeal, Marquette: I LOVE Jerel McNeal's game and I think he might be able to become a solid player on the NBA level. I first saw how good he was when he dropped 30 points on Stanford in the NCAA Tournament last year. He's been great all season and he seems to play his best in big games. McNeal is currently shooting 49.1% from the field, including a deadly 46.2% from 3m, while averaging 19.4 points a game.
Stats: 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.9 steals, 49.1% FG, 46.2% 3FG.
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Paul Delaney, III , UAB: Delaney is a senior guard for UAB that has been pretty damn efficient from the floor this season. He is 35th in the nation in effective FG% and is knocking down an incredible 59% of his shots. The UAB Blazers are just 13-7 this season, but they have played a tough schedule that included Oklahoma(12), Louisville(7), Butler(24), & Memphis(9). With Delaney teaming up with Robert Vaden, the Blazers might be able to knock off Memphis in the Conference USA tourney to make the field of 64.
Stats: 16.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 59.0% FG, 35.1% 3FG.
Other Thoughts:
- Notre Dame(50) is in big trouble, mostly because of their horrible defense that is ranked only 129th in the nation. Now three of their next four games are against Pitt(3), UCLA(14), and Louisville (7). It's possible they could lose all 3 of those games, which would give them 10 losses and they still have to play West Virginia(10), Villanova(26), and UConn(6). They might even miss the NCAA Tournament.
- Austin Johnson backed up his recent strong performance with a impressive 22 points against OK State, on 7 of 12 shooting, including 5 of 8 from three.
More: NCAA Basketball
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