Thursday, January 22, 2009

NBA Weekly: Orlando Magic's Road Record, NBA Rookies, Philadelphia 76ers, & More

Orlando Magic: Something to consider with everyone drooling all over the Cavs is that they have a modest 12-8 road record right now. That's probably not going to get it done come playoff time, especially if they aren't able to secure the #1 seed and home court advantage. Even the Celtics are just 13-7 on the road this season after their recent stretch of poor play. However, the Orlando Magic currently have a 17-5 road record, which is tops in the NBA. Just another reason to think that the Magic are legit contenders in the East, even more so if they finish with the best record. Their game tonight against Boston might give us a hint of what to expect from the Magic. It's a nationally televised game and this is Orlando's chance to make a statement. Boston just played on the road last night at Miami and Orlando should come out fired up and well rested. If they don't play well tonight, regardless of the outcome, then maybe they aren't ready just yet to contend for a title.

Philadelphia 76ers: I mentioned when Elton Brand got hurt that I thought the 76ers would go on a winning streak and they have done just that of late. They recently had a 7 game winning streak and now have a record of 9-7 without Brand and have moved into 7th place in the East. He will be returning from injury soon, but Philly is definitely playing better of late and needs to find a way to mesh with Brand once he does return. Philly should be able to remain in the playoffs for the rest of the season and I don't see them finishing any lower than 7th and possibly as high as 5th if they really get things together. Currently, the Nets occupy the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, but I think that Bobcats might actually be able to sneak into the playoffs this year in the 8th spot.

Some interesting observations(in italics) by ESPN's David Thorpe on some of the NBA's rookies:

Derrick Rose: When the game is tight or the competition is tough, Rose is challenged with stepping up and doing more for his team. It's an extremely tough task for a rookie point guard.In the Bulls' past five games against teams in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (actually 11, as Miami is in a virtual tie for the 10th spot), Rose was 21-for-74 from the field. The Bulls' OT win against Cleveland was their only victory among those five games. And in that game, Rose had five teammates shoot a combined 24-for-42, while he shot 6-for-20.In a recent loss to the Spurs, four of Rose's teammates -- Drew Gooden, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni -- shot a combined 25-for-41, while Rose made 6 of his 21 shots. He did have 8 assists and zero turnovers, however, showing that he is capable of making easy plays. As Rose matures, he'll recognize that in most cases, passing up his own contested shot for a wide-open look from a hot-shooting teammate actually helps him get his own offense down the road. I do not think Rose is selfish, not at all. But managing this game while staying aggressive takes knowledge and experience.

Antone Says: Rose is being asked to do too much right now and he is really not a player who should be looking to shot as much as he is. Rose is at his best when he is looking to make the best play, which sometimes means he should be scoring, but I think he would be more effective driving and dishing the ball out when a good shot isn't there. I don't think Rose is a go to guy in this league and he shouldn't be, but the Bulls might not have any other choice. Although, I might take my chances with Rose dishing out to Ben Gordon for a three instead, since the penetration would most likely draw the defense.

O.J. Mayo: Here are some interesting numbers: 23.1, 17.7, 16.8 -- Mayo's scoring averages for November, December and January, respectively. Why the downward trend? Easy, check out Mayo's field goal percentages for those months: 48 percent, 43.8 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Then factor in Mayo's 3-point numbers: 42.1 percent, 39.1 percent and 32.5 percent; his 3-point accuracy has dropped each month as well.We'll get into why his numbers are dipping some other time, but here's the important part: Mayo's lack of free throw attempts is causing this direct correlation of poor shooting and a drop in overall scoring. He has taken just 23 free throws in his eight games in January thus far, and though he has made 21 of them, he's just not getting to the line as often as a team's primary scorer typically does.

Antone Says: I thought Mayo would shoot in the low 40's from the floor in his rookie season, so I was definitely surprised when he was shooting 47.1% about mid-way through December. Well, now he's back down to 44.3% from the floor, which is closer to where I thought he would be before the season began.

Courtney Lee: The Magic have gone 6-0 since Lee moved into the starting lineup. Of course, he's nowhere near the key guy on this team, but his numbers are still very impressive -- 9.7 ppg in 29 minutes per game, on 53 percent shooting from the field and the 3-point line. On top of that, he often gets the toughest assignment on defense. In his six starts, he has guarded Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant and Manu Ginobili. Only Kobe was able to score easily and consistently on the defensive-minded Lee.

Antone Says: When the Magic drafted Lee, I mentioned he had "good size for a SG and he can shoot the ball well. He should step right in and help the Magic spread the floor even more than they already do with their 3-Point shooting". It took a little longer than expected, but Lee seems to be fitting the role that the Magic needed and sounds like he's solid on defense too. Orlando is going to be that much tougher to beat if this guy keeps shooting 50% from the floor and knocking down threes.

Brook Lopez: Though the Nets are struggling, Lopez is excelling. He may even be cruising toward a rookie of the month award. He had 28 points and 10 rebounds in a loss to Boston on Saturday, raising his January averages to 15.1 ppg and 8.9 rpg, along with 2.2 blocks per game. He is also 26-for-30 from the free throw line this month, showing how tough he is to defend. Get too physical with him and he'll kill you from the stripe, unlike some of the other dominant bigs we have in the league.

Antone Says: Although I was against taking Lopez in the Top 5, I did mention that I thought he was a great value for the Nets at # 9 and it is definitely looking like Lopez is a quality player in the NBA. I don't think he will ever be a star, but he certainly is going to be a solid player for many years because he is so fundamentally sound.

Other NBA News:

- Kobe Bryant suffered a painful pinky injury the other night against the Cavs and he is going to play through the pain. This might be something to keep an eye on in case we start to see Kobe struggle with his shooting. You would think that this injury wouldn't last all season, but you never know and if it does linger than it could affect the Lakers outlook this season.

- The Heat and Raptors have talked about swapping Shawn Marion & Jermaine O'Neal. I don't see why the Heat would make this trade, because O'Neal is not dependable anymore and they would be losing the flexibility that comes along with Marion's expiring contract. I have no problem with them trading Marion, but if they do then they better get someone who they know is going to be on the court most of the time and Jermaine O'Neal is definitely not that player.

- The Kings are looking to trade Brad Miller, with the Mavs and Spurs the two teams that are most interested. If Miller is traded that will open up things down low for rookie Jason Thompson, who has been playing well of late. John Salmons might also be moved before the trading deadline.

More: NBA Weekly

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