2009 NCAA Tournament: Game by Game Analysis & Possible Upsets

Last year, I did a series of posts analyzing the NCAA tournament based on Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings, so I am going to be updating those posts with the 2008 info and also analyzing the 2009 NCAA Tournament. I switched the format up a little for the analysis of the 2008 tournament as well.

Here's the schedule for the analysis I will be doing and links as I post each Part:

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)
Part II: Historical Analysis of Top Seeds (1 through 4)
Part III: Historical Analysis of Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)
Part IV: 2009 NCAA Tournament Game by Game Analysis & Possible Upsets

In this post, I will be posting the efficiency rankings for each matchup and will predict the winners of each 1st Round game and also give my predictions for the Final 4 and National Championship Game.

Midwest Region:

Louisville (4) vs Alabama State (195)/Morehead State (167):

Overall Efficiency: Louisville (4), Alabama State (195)/Morehead State(167)
Offensive Efficiency: Louisville (42), Alabama State (193)/Morehead State(173)
Defensive Efficiency: Louisville (2), Alabama State (202)/Morehead State(171)

Efficiency Prediction: Louisville
My Prediction: Louisville

Ohio State (36) vs Siena (65)

Overall Efficiency: Ohio State (36) Siena (65)
Offensive Efficiency: Ohio State (36) Siena (65)
Defensive Efficiency: Ohio State (36) Siena (65)

Efficiency Prediction: Ohio State
My Prediction: Siena

Comments: Neither team is strong on defense, so I think Siena will be able to score on Ohio State. Ohio State turns the ball over a lot and Siena is good at forcing turnovers. Siena is also a fast paced team, while Ohio State is a slow paced team.

Utah (25) vs Arizona (39)

Overall Efficiency: Utah (25) Arizona (39)
Offensive Efficiency: Utah (52) Arizona (7)
Defensive Efficiency: Utah (21) Arizona (132)

Efficiency Prediction: Utah
My Prediction: Utah

Comments: Arizona's defense is going to have to step things up against a tough Utah team. I was initially going to pick Arizona here, but I think Utah is a lot better than they are getting credit for and will avoid the dreaded 5/12 upset.

Wake Forest (21) vs Cleveland State (68)

Overall Efficiency: Wake Forest (25) Cleveland State (39)
Offensive Efficiency: Wake Forest (40) Cleveland State (39)
Defensive Efficiency: Wake Forest (14) Cleveland State (39)

Efficiency Prediction: Wake Forest
My Prediction: Wake Forest

Comments: I think this game is going to be extremely close, because Cleveland State is a slow paced team who plays solid defense. They are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers and Wake Forest is the 200th in protecting the ball on offense. Wake Forest could be on upset alert in this game.

West Virginia (8) vs Dayton (83)

Overall Efficiency: West Virginia (8) Dayton (83)
Offensive Efficiency: West Virginia (15) Dayton (144)
Defensive Efficiency: West Virginia (7) Dayton (41)

Efficiency Prediction: West Virginia
My Prediction: West Virginia

Comments: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and they have the profile efficiency wise that says they are a 2 seed. Instead they are an extremely dangerous 6 seed.

Kansas (10) vs North Dakota State (71)

Overall Efficiency: Kansas (10) North Dakota State (71)
Offensive Efficiency: Kansas (19) North Dakota State (32)
Defensive Efficiency: Kansas (15) North Dakota State (139)

Efficiency Prediction: Kansas
My Prediction: Kansas

Comments: Kansas could go either way in this tournament. They could bow out early or they could make a return trip to the Final 4. However, I don't think North Dakota State has the athletes to keep up with Kansas.

Boston College (59) vs USC (27)

Overall Efficiency: Boston College (59) USC (27)
Offensive Efficiency: Boston College (27) USC (62)
Defensive Efficiency: Boston College (131) USC (19)

Efficiency Prediction: USC
My Prediction: USC

Comments: USC is actually a much better team than BC efficiency wise. I'm not sure why BC got such a high seed. They did have some nice wins, but I don't think they were worth of a 7 seed. These two seeds should probably be flipped.

Michigan State (13) vs Robert Morris (122)

Overall Efficiency: Michigan State (13) Robert Morris (122)
Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State (33) Robert Morris (170)
Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State (10) Robert Morris (91)

Efficiency Prediction: Michigan State
My Prediction: Michigan State

Comments: This game is most likely going to be a blowout. However, if you want to beat Michigan State you need to be a good rebounding team. Robert Morris isn't that, but it's something to keep in mind for Michigan State's potential matchups after the first round.

West Region:

UConn (3) vs Chattanooga (213)

Overall Efficiency: UConn (3) Chattanooga (213)
Offensive Efficiency: UConn (20) Chattanooga (132)
Defensive Efficiency: UConn (3) Chattanooga (288)

Efficiency Prediction: UConn
My Prediction: UConn

Comments: UConn draws the worst team in the tournament and also the worst team on defense. They should cruise in this one as long as they don't let their guard down.

BYU (18) vs Texas A&M (52)

Overall Efficiency: BYU (18) Texas A&M (52)
Offensive Efficiency: BYU (22) Texas A&M (36)
Defensive Efficiency: BYU (23) Texas A&M (78)

Efficiency Prediction: BYU
My Prediction: BYU

Comments: Texas A&M grades out at around a 12 or 13 seed and is probably one of the worst at-large teams in the tournament. BYU is underseeded as and 8 and probably should have been a 5 or 6 seed. I like BYU because they are 7th in the country in Offensive Effective FG% and 32nd in three-point shooting. If they win their first round game, I think they will give UConn a good game in Round 2.

Purdue (14) vs Northern Iowa (82)

Overall Efficiency: Purdue (14) Northern Iowa (82)
Offensive Efficiency: Purdue (48) Northern Iowa (57)
Defensive Efficiency: Purdue (5) Northern Iowa (127)

Efficiency Prediction: Purdue
My Prediction: Purdue

Comments: Northern Iowa is a decent team, but I don't think their offense is good enough for them to beat Purdue who has a very stingy defense.

Washington (16) vs Mississippi State (60)

Overall Efficiency: Washington (16) Mississippi (60)
Offensive Efficiency: Washington (35) Mississippi (74)
Defensive Efficiency: Washington (11) Mississippi (59)

Efficiency Prediction: Washington
My Prediction: Washington

Comments: Mississippi is a poor rebounding team and Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. I think that might be the difference in this game.

Marquette (20) vs Utah State (56)

Overall Efficiency: Marquette (20) Utah State (56)
Offensive Efficiency: Marquette (9) Utah State (13)
Defensive Efficiency: Marquette (56) Utah State (169)

Efficiency Prediction: Marquette
My Prediction: Utah State

Comments: Utah State is just as good of an offensive team as Marquette, but they rank a lot worse on defense. However, if you look at the Offensive & Defensive Effective FG% of each team, Utah State(4, 96) actually ranks higher than Marquette(74, 253). Utah State also rebounds better than Marquette and shoots the three better at almost a 40% clip; good for 13th best in the country. I'm looking for an upset here even though I do like Marquette, I think they just get a bad draw with this one.

Missouri (10) vs Cornell (100)

Overall Efficiency: Missouri (10) Cornell (100)
Offensive Efficiency: Missouri (18) Cornell (81)
Defensive Efficiency: Missouri (8) Cornell (46)

Efficiency Prediction: Missouri
My Prediction: Missouri

Comments: Cornell is actually pretty solid for a 14 seed. They are better in off/def effective FG% than Missouri and they are the 6th best three-pointing team in the country. However, they do have some problems with turnovers, which is not the problem you want to have when playing Missouri. They might be able to keep it close if they can protect the ball, but if not then this could be blowout city.

California (29) vs Maryland (54)

Overall Efficiency: California (29) Maryland (54)
Offensive Efficiency: California (11) Maryland (73)
Defensive Efficiency: California (86) Maryland (47)

Efficiency Prediction: California
My Prediction: California

Comments: I tried to look for something positive about Maryland, but I couldn't really find anything. I'm not even sure they belong in the tournament right now. They have some nice wins over Michigan State, UNC, and Wake Forest, but other than that there's not much there. Cal can really shoot the ball and is # 1 in the country in three point shooting. Maryland is also one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 260th in Off. Effective FG%.

Memphis (1) vs Cal State Northridge (104)

Overall Efficiency: Memphis (1) Cal State Northridge (104)
Offensive Efficiency: Memphis (39) Cal State Northridge (179)
Defensive Efficiency: Memphis (1) Cal State Northridge (61)

Efficiency Prediction: Memphis
My Prediction: Memphis

Comments: This one should be a blowout. Going forward it will be interesting to see how Memphis plays against some better competition. I think they will struggle offensively against some of the better defensive teams, so they could have trouble with Missouri or UConn if they play either one of those teams.

East Region:

Pitt (6) vs East Tennessee State (113)

Overall Efficiency: Pitt (6) East Tennessee State (113)
Offensive Efficiency: Pitt (6) East Tennessee State (113)
Defensive Efficiency: Pitt (6) East Tennessee State (113)

Efficiency Prediction: Pitt
My Prediction: Pitt

Comments: Pitt should cruise here and I think they will cruise all the way into the Elite 8. UCLA(9), Villanova(19), or Duke(7) will probably be waiting for them in the Elite 8. Anyone of those teams would have a good chance to beat Pitt.

Oklahoma State (33) vs Tennessee (32)

Overall Efficiency: Oklahoma State (33) Tennessee (32)
Offensive Efficiency: Oklahoma State (16) Tennessee (17)
Defensive Efficiency: Oklahoma State (73) Tennessee (71)

Efficiency Prediction: Tennessee
My Prediction: Oklahoma State

Comments: These teams are about as equal as they can get, but I like Oklahoma State because they have been hot lately. They are better in Off. Effective FG%(29) than Tennessee(103) and they also shoot the three a lot better ranking 25th in the country. Look for Oklahoma State to go to the free throw line a lot against Tennessee too.

Florida State (35) vs Wisconsin (30)

Overall Efficiency: Florida State (35) Wisconsin (30)
Offensive Efficiency: Florida State (95) Wisconsin (24)
Defensive Efficiency: Florida State (12) Wisconsin (60)

Efficiency Prediction: Wisconsin
My Prediction: Wisconsin

Comments: Wisconsin actually grades out as the better team here and since this is a dreaded 5/12 matchup and Florida State is pretty poor on offense then I'll take the bait and go with Wisconsin in an upset.

Xavier (24) vs Portland State (117)

Overall Efficiency: Xavier (24) Portland State (117)
Offensive Efficiency: Xavier (44) Portland State (79)
Defensive Efficiency: Xavier (18) Portland State (200)

Efficiency Prediction: Xavier
My Prediction: Xavier

Comments: Xavier is a funny team because they are a strong team but have some questionable losses. They are pretty good all around, but they do turn the ball over a lot. However, I don't think Portland State is a team that can exploit that, so I look for Xavier to advance here.

UCLA (9) vs VCU (55)

Overall Efficiency: UCLA (9) VCU (55)
Offensive Efficiency: UCLA (3) VCU (75)
Defensive Efficiency: UCLA (37) VCU (48)

Efficiency Prediction: UCLA
My Prediction: UCLA

Comments: As much as I like VCU, they got a bad matchup with UCLA, who is underseeded as a 6 seed. I still think VCU has a chance to win the game, but I don't see an upset happening here as much as everyone else is calling for.

Villanova (19) vs American (109)

Overall Efficiency: Villanova (19) American (109)
Offensive Efficiency: Villanova (25) American (117)
Defensive Efficiency: Villanova (25) American (124)

Efficiency Prediction: Villanova
My Prediction: Villanova

Comments: This game is in Philly, so I have a hard time believing American can pull off the upset. However, they have won 19 out of their last 20 games and have better off/def effective FG%'s (22, 27) than Villanova(81, 93). So I can actually see the possibility of American pulling off a major upset or at least giving Villanova a scare for a while, but that's only if the play a perfect game and I don't see that happening.

Texas (28) vs Minnesota (45)

Overall Efficiency: Texas (28) Minnesota (45)
Offensive Efficiency: Texas (46) Minnesota (88)
Defensive Efficiency: Texas (27) Minnesota (20)

Efficiency Prediction: Texas
My Prediction: Texas

Comments: I don't like either one of these teams and Texas is a pretty poor shooting team, but I think they have more experience and some better wins than Minnesota does.

Duke (7) vs Binghamton (162)

Overall Efficiency: Duke (7) Binghamton (162)
Offensive Efficiency: Duke (4) Binghamton (178)
Defensive Efficiency: Duke (17) Binghamton (159)

Efficiency Prediction: Duke
My Prediction: Duke

Comments: Duke should have no problem with Binghamton, but I'm torn on how far they can go in the tournament. I could see them making the Final 4, but I could also see them getting knocked out by the UCLA/Villanova/VCU winner. Their offensive and defensive effective FG%'s are not that great(102, 94), so that definitely scares me a little.

South Region:

North Carolina (2) vs Radford (170)

Overall Efficiency: North Carolina (2) Radford (170)
Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina (1) Radford (187)
Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina (35) Radford (166)

Efficiency Prediction: North Carolina
My Prediction: North Carolina

Comments: I still think North Carolina needs to play Ed Davis more to shore up their defense if they want to win the National Championship. However, the health of Ty Lawson is a bigger issue. If he's not 100% than North Carolina could certainly be vunerable. It doesn't help matters that they have a tough bracket with Gonzaga(5), Arizona State(12), Syracuse(15), Oklahoma(17), & Clemson(22) all in the South. UNC will definitely have to earn their way to the Final 4 this year.

LSU (46) vs Butler (43)

Overall Efficiency: LSU (46) Butler (43)
Offensive Efficiency: LSU (51) Butler (63)
Defensive Efficiency: LSU (53) Butler (45)

Efficiency Prediction: Butler
My Prediction: Butler

Comments: This one is a toss up for me, so I'm going to go with Butler, even though they might have turnover and rebounding issues. I think that LSU hasn't been playing all that well lately and Butler has a good tournament history.

Illinois (23) vs Western Kentucky (99)

Overall Efficiency: Illinois (23) Western Kentucky (99)
Offensive Efficiency: Illinois (97) Western Kentucky (68)
Defensive Efficiency: Illinois (4) Western Kentucky (168)

Efficiency Prediction: Illinois
My Prediction: Western Kentucky

Comments: I don't like Illinois' offense and the fact they will be without Chester Frazier, who is their leader at PG and on defense. I think that will make their offense even worse. Western Kentucky is also a good three-point shooting team.

Gonzaga (5) vs Akron (91)

Overall Efficiency: Gonzaga (5) Akron (91)
Offensive Efficiency: Gonzaga (6) Akron (153)
Defensive Efficiency: Gonzaga (9) Akron (50)

Efficiency Prediction: Gonzaga
My Prediction: Gonzaga

Comments: Gonzaga is just a flat out better team than Akron, so they should have no problem in this game. If Gonzaga and UNC end up playing in the Sweet 16, I think the winner of that game goes to the Final 4.

Arizona State (12) vs Temple (47)

Overall Efficiency: Arizona State (12) Temple (47)
Offensive Efficiency: Arizona State (5) Temple (69)
Defensive Efficiency: Arizona State (36) Temple (40)

Efficiency Prediction: Arizona State
My Prediction: Arizona State

Comments: I like the offense of Arizona State to pull out the victory in this game. Arizona State is also a darkhorse to make the Elite 8 if they can get past Syracuse in the 2nd Round.

Syracuse (15) vs Stephen F. Austin (93)

Overall Efficiency: Syracuse (15) Stephen F. Austin (93)
Offensive Efficiency: Syracuse (10) Stephen F. Austin (242)
Defensive Efficiency: Syracuse (42) Stephen F. Austin (13)

Efficiency Prediction: Syracuse
My Prediction: Syracuse

Comments: Stephen F. Austin is a great defensive team, but their offense is horrific. They are especially bad at shooting the three(266th) and that's not a good thing when you are going up against a zone. It could be a long game for the Stephen F. Austin if they aren't knocking down outside shots.

Clemson (22) vs Michigan (49)

Overall Efficiency: Clemson (22) Michigan (49)
Offensive Efficiency: Clemson (12) Michigan (41)
Defensive Efficiency: Clemson (52) Michigan (67)

Efficiency Prediction: Clemson
My Prediction: Clemson

Comments: I think the Clemson offense and three-point shooting gets them the win in the game. If they do win, I also think they have a great chance to knock off Oklahoma(17) in the 2nd Round.

Oklahoma (17) vs Morgan State (139)

Overall Efficiency: Oklahoma (17) Morgan State (139)
Offensive Efficiency: Oklahoma (17) Morgan State (139)
Defensive Efficiency: Oklahoma (17) Morgan State (139)

Efficiency Prediction: Oklahoma
My Prediction: Oklahoma

Comments: I don't see Oklahoma making it past the Sweet 16, where they will most likely matchup against Arizona State(12) or Syracuse(15).

Possible Upsets:

High Probability: Wisconsin(12) over Florida State(5), Western Kentucky(12) over Illinois(5), USC(10) over Boston College(7)

Medium Probability: Utah State(11) over Marquette(6), Arizona(12) over Utah(5)

Low Probability: VCU(11) over UCLA(6), Cleveland State(13) over Wake Forest(4), Mississippi State(13) over Washington(4), Temple(11) over Arizona State(6), American(14) over Villanova(3), Portland State(13) over Xavier(4)


Elite 8 Predictions:

Efficiency Predictions:
Louisville(4) vs West Virginia(8)
UConn(3) vs Memphis(1)
Pitt(6) vs Duke(7)
North Carolina(2) vs Arizona State(12)

My Predictions:
Louisville(4) vs Kansas(11)
UConn(3) vs Memphis(1)
Pitt(6) vs Duke(7)
North Carolina(2) vs Syracuse(15)

Final 4 Predictions:

Efficiency Predictions:
Louisville(4) vs Memphis(1)
Pitt(6) vs North Carolina (2)

National Championship Game: Memphis(1) vs North Carolina(2)

Winner: Memphis(1)

My Predictions:
Louisville(4) vs UConn(3)
Pitt(6) vs North Carolina(2)

National Championship Game: UConn(3) vs North Carolina(2)

Winner: North Carolina(2)

Comments: In the end, I like the offense and star power of UNC too much to not pick them as the champs. I'm really worried about Gonzaga(5) knocking them off though and killing my bracket. I picked all 4 # 1 ones because they aren't actually the best 4 teams in efficiency, but they all still rank highly, so in my mind I'm not really picking the Top 4 teams. Memphis(1), Gonzaga(5), & Duke(7) would be next in line for me as far as making the Final 4 for me. I threw Kansas(11) in the Elite 8 just to switch things up, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them flame out early either. I could also see the winner of the UCLA/Villanova matchup beating Duke and making the Elite 8. Unfortunately, I could see a scenario with all 4 of the # 1 seeds NOT making the Final 4, although I think Louisville and Pitt have the best chance to advance that far. North Carolina would have the easiest road if it wasn't for the possible matchup against Gonzaga, but I think they cruise if they get past that one. I think there's only 5 teams with a realistic chance to win the championship: UNC, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, & Memphis.

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