The most common first round upsets are the 5 vs 12 and 6 vs 11. Starting last year, I broke down these matchups going back to 2004 using Overall Efficiency and other factors, mainly Offensive/Defensive Effective FG%. I updated the post with the 2008 final results and will be adding my analysis of the 2009 matchups once they are announced.
Here's the schedule for the analysis I will be doing and links as I post each Part:
Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)Part II: Historical Analysis of Top Seeds (1 through 4)
Part III: Historical Analysis of Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)
Part IV: 2009 NCAA Tournament Game by Game Analysis & Possible Upsets
5 vs 12 Matchups: Team(Overall Efficiency Rank)
2008: Clemson(13) lost to Villanova(43), Michigan State(15) beat Temple(65), Drake(27) lost to Western Kentucky(59), and Notre Dame(28) beat George Mason(94)
Analysis: Two upsets in 2008 with Clemson and Drake both getting knocked off. Clemson is an interesting case considering they were ranked in the top 13 in efficiency overall. They were done in by Villanova who had some of the worst effective FG% in the tournament, but their overall efficiency ratings in both offense(61) and defense(34) were not THAT far off from Clemson's ratings(29, 12). It also helped that Villanova was a veteran squad that played in a big conference, which means they certainly weren't worried if they could match up with Clemson, so they were not your typical 12 seed. Western Kentucky beating Drake was not a surprise, since their effective FG%'s on both offense and defense were better than Drake's.
2007: Butler(25) beat Old Dominion(73), USC(27) beat Arkansas(36), Tennessee(31) beat LB State(136), and Va Tech(39) beat Illinois(33)
Analysis: No upsets in 2007, but a couple of 12 seeds(Arkansas & Illinois) probably shouldn't have been 12 seeds but they both were flawed teams. Illinois was bad on offense and Arkansas had an average offense.
2006: Pitt(12) beat Kent St(75), Washington(13) beat Utah St(72), Nevada(35) lost to Montana(88), Syracuse(51) lost to Texas A&M(25)
Analysis: Only one upset here as Montana knocked off Nevada. Nevada was actually a better team but Montana had a better offense, especially since they were 9 in the country in Effective FG %. That was probably the driving factor in the upset. Also, it is worth nothing that a 5 seed that has an overall efficiency ranking in the Top 15(Pitt & Washington), probably isn't going to lose to a 12 seed.
2005: Villanova(5) beat New Mexico(36), Michigan St(7) beat Old Dominion(72), Alabama(17) lost to Wisc-Milw.(42), and Georgia Tech(21) beat George Washington(46)
Analysis: Two of the 5 seeds(Villanova and Mich St) were Top 10 teams in the country so they were badly underseeded. Both of them ended up losing to eventual champion North Carolina so that is nothing to be ashamed of. The one upset was Wisc.-Milw. beating Alabama. Alabama was a solid team overall that year and the numbers don't really explain why they lost, except that Wisc-Milw. was pretty good at holding opponents to a low effective FG%. So I figured there must be something else going on here and I saw that they had a 9 game winning streak coming into the matchup so they were a hot team.
2004: Illinois(11) beat Murray St(71), Providence(23) lost to Pacific(77), Syracuse(25) beat BYU(39), Florida(26) lost to Manhattan(57);
Analysis: Illinois was ranked too high to lose to a 12 seed, but there were 2 upsets this year. Providence fell victim to Pacific who was riding a 15 game win streak coming into this game. Pacific was also better in both offensive and defensive FG %. Manhattan knocked off Florida mainly because Florida had just an average defensive FG % and Manhattan was pretty good in that area. They also had won 19 of their last 21 games.
This Years 5 vs 12 Matchups:
Utah (25) vs Arizona (39): I actually think this is a bad matchup for Arizona because they are a poor defensive team(132) and Utah can really shoot the ball(13 in effective FG%). At the same time, this is a pretty even matchup and I expect this game to be extremely close. Close games often come down to turnovers and rebounding. Arizona protects the ball better and also is a better offensive rebounding team, however, Utah is strong on the defensive boards and actually are best in the country in that area. I don't think it will hurt your bracket too much if you get this game wrong, so you may want to try and steal some extra points and go with Arizona.
Purdue (15) vs Northern Iowa (82): I'll admit I'm not the biggest Purdue fan and I think they might have some trouble in this game with Northern Iowa. However, in the end these two teams are pretty much even on offense, but Purdue is far better on defense and I think they will be able to pretty much handle the Northern Iowa offense. I like Purdue in this one also because they are ranked as one of the best 15 teams in overall efficiency. Northern Iowa is extremely slow paced though, so this one could be very low scoring.
Florida State (35) vs Wisconsin (30): This matchup does not look good for Florida State. Wisconsin is actually better than them in overall efficiency, plus Florida State is overseeded and rank out as a 9 seed, while Wisconsin ranks out as an 8. Another problem for Florida State is that Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace(334) compared to Florida State's(144). The Seminoles lost to Northwestern earlier in the season who plays at a pace similar to Wisconsin. Wisconsin's offense(24) is much better than Florida State's(95) and in a slow paced game Florida State might be even worse. Wisconsin also fits the mold of the 12th seeded team that is from a big conference. Of course the X-factor here is Toney Douglas, so you may want to factor that in to your decision. I'll probably be rolling with Wisconsin in the upset.
Illinois (23) vs Western Kentucky (99): This is the toughest of the 5/12 matchups for me to pick. Illinois is solid on defense(4), but is pretty bad on offense(97). They may also be without their senior leader at point guard, Chester Frazier. Western Kentucky can shoot the ball and they have some experience in the tournament. Western Kentucky has a small 7 game winning streak, so they have been hot of late. I think Illinois could be in trouble here because of their offense, but I'm not sure how good Western Kentucky is either. Either way, I think whoever wins this game is going to lose to Gonzaga, so you may just want to go with the upset.
6 vs 11 Matchups: Team(Overall Efficiency Rank)
2008: Marquette(11) beat Kentucky(55), USC(26) lost to Kansas State(17), Purdue(23) beat Baylor(42), and Oklahoma(46) beat St. Joe's(54)
Analysis: USC lost to Kansas State, but considering that K-State ranked better than USC in efficiency, this is just a case of poor seeding. Anytime the lower seeded team is ranked higher than the top seed in a matchup like this, it would be a good bet to pick the upset. On the flip side, Marquette was also badly underseeded as a 6 seed, so no surprise they were able to get past Kentucky.
2007: Duke(11) lost to VCU(66), Louisville(12) beat Stanford(53), Notre Dame(20) lost to Winthrop(69), and Vanderbilt(35) beat George Washington(92)
Analysis: Two big upsets here with Duke and ND going down. The Duke upset was surprising, because they graded out well overall at 11, but they had lost three straight games coming into the tournament and they were a very slow paced team that year, so they may not have been as athletic as a normal Duke team. The Winthrop upset was not as surprising, they were 24 in offensive FG% and had won 18 straight games before upsetting ND and making it 19 straight.
2006: West Virginia(16) beat Southern Illinois(47), Michigan State(33) lost to George Mason(23), Indiana(46) beat San Diego St(56), and Oklahoma(50) lost to Wisc-Milw.(63)
Analysis: George Mason at 23 was actually a better team then Michigan St so it's no surprise they won the game. Oklahoma was probably seeded to high with an overall rank of 50, they probably should have been a 10 or 11 seed themselves. They were basically equal with Wisc-Milw. but Wisc Milw. was a fast paced team while Oklahoma was one of the slowest paced teams, so WM was able to quicken up the pace of the game to beat Oklahoma.
2005: Wisconsin(16) beat Northern Iowa(54), Utah(22) beat UTEP(66), Texas Tech(30) beat UCLA(69), and LSU(38) lost to UAB(51)
Analysis: Only one upset here as LSU lost to UAB. LSU was a slow paced team that was bad on defense and it showed as they gave up 82 points to UAB, who was one of the fastest paced teams that season. So it's no surprise they ran all over LSU.
2004: Wisconsin(5) beat Richmond(40), North Carolina(10) beat Air Force(47), Vanderbilt(24) beat Western Michigan(48) and Boston College(31) beat Utah(41)
Analysis: No upsets here since all four of the 6 seeds were solid teams who were in the top 30 in defensive efficiency.
This years 6 vs 11 Matchups:
West Virginia (8) vs Dayton (83): Believe it or not, even though these two teams are so far part in overall efficiency, they are pretty similar in most categories. They both are poor shooting teams, who rebound well, and play good defense. West Virginia is slightly better on offense, but their main advantage is that they are good are forcing turnovers(42) and Dayton is not good at protecting the ball(182). West Virginia is also great at offensive rebounding(6). I like West Virginia in this one.
Marquette (20) vs Utah State (56): Utah State is going to be a tough matchup for Marquette because they are a great offensive team. Marquette is 9th in offensive efficiency, but Utah State is right up there with them at 13th and shoots the three at the 13th best clip in the country. They are also a strong rebounding team ranking 47th in offensive rebounding and 18th in defensive rebounding. I love Marquette because of their offense, but they are a little weak on the defensive end, so Utah State might be able to expose them there. The only question I have about Utah State is if they can matchup atheltically with Marquette. I am going to against the grain with this one though and pick Utah State in an upset.
UCLA (9) vs VCU (55): I know a lot of people like VCU to win this game, but I can't get past how good the UCLA offense is. They rank 3rd in offensive efficiency and 6th in effective FG%. They have several efficient options on offense. Defensively, they leave a little to be desired, since they rank 202nd in defensive effective FG%. However, the Pac 10 does have some effecient offensive teams, so this may have hurt UCLA a little in the area. I think VCU has a solid offense and defense, but I'm just not sure they are deep enough to hang with UCLA. It would not surprise me to see them win, but I'm sticking with UCLA.
Arizona State (12) vs Temple (47): Two extremely slow paced teams matchup in this game, so it should be a low scoring battle. Temple is certainly capable of knocking off Arizona State, and the two teams are about equal on defense, but I like the 5th ranked Arizona State offense to prevail in this one.
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