Now that the Sweet 16 is set, I am going to take a look at the matchups and also analyze how effective the efficiency ratings are in predicting who made the Sweet 16.Louisville (4) (.966) vs Arizona (31) (.895)
Overall Efficiency: Louisville (4), Arizona (31)
Offensive Efficiency: Louisville (41), Arizona (7)
Defensive Efficiency: Louisville (2), Arizona (118)
Efficiency Prediction: Louisville
My Prediction: Louisville
Comments: Arizona is actually the biggest underdog left in the tournament. Louisville's weakness is their offense, which hasn't improved much through the first two rounds of the tournament. Arizona's weakness is their defense, so they probably won't be too effective in stopping Louisville, but if they can put a bunch of points up then they might have a chance to beat Louisville. I think Louisville will be victorious, but I'm starting to think they might get knocked off by the Kansas-Michigan State winner though.
Michigan State (16) (.941) vs Kansas (9) (.952)
Overall Efficiency: Michigan State (16), Kansas (9)
Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State (30), Kansas (24)
Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State (12), Kansas (8)
Efficiency Prediction: Kansas
My Prediction: Kansas
Comments: I picked Kansas in the Elite 8, but somehow when I filled out my brackets I had West Virginia. I guess I had bracket overload and had forgotten what my final decision was. Kansas has creeped back into the Top 10 in efficiency, but they are still a young team and I have to wonder if maybe Michigan State can grit out a victory against them. Both teams struggle with turnovers. Kansas shoots better from the field, especially from 3. Michigan State has been dominating teams on the boards, but Cole Aldrich is better in that area than anyone on their squad. I think Kansas will find a way to win in the end.
UConn (2) (.976) vs Purdue (18) (.937)
Overall Efficiency: UConn (2), Purdue (18)
Offensive Efficiency: UConn (13), Purdue (57)
Defensive Efficiency: UConn (3), Purdue (5)
Efficiency Prediction: UConn
My Prediction: UConn
Comments: UConn's offensive efficiency has skyrocketed from 20th to 13th since the beginning of the tournament. The reason why I picked UNC over UConn in the final is because in the last 5 years all the champs have been 1st or 2nd in offensive efficiency and with UConn being 20th it just didn't seem logical to pick them to win it all. However, the way they have been playing they might end up at least in the Top 10, which would make them a much better pick. Meanwhile, Purdue's offense has slipped from 48th to 57th and they are by far the worst offensive team in the Sweet 16. I don't think that makes them a good bet to knock off UConn and considering UConn is bigger and more physical than Purdue, I don't think it would be to their advantage to try and turn this one into a slow-paced slugfest, even though that's probably their only chance to win.
Memphis (1) (.980) vs Missouri (7) (.958)
Overall Efficiency: Memphis (1), Missouri (7)
Offensive Efficiency: Memphis (25), Missouri (24)
Defensive Efficiency: Memphis (1), Missouri (8)
Efficiency Prediction: Memphis
My Prediction: Memphis
Comments: Unlike Louisville, the Memphis offense has actually improved 14 spots over the first two games, which leads me to believe that they may actually be better than Louisville. It also means that the best two teams in this tournament might be in the same bracket, when it was originally thought that UConn and Memphis were the weakest of the 5 potential # 1 seeds. Unfortunately for one of them, they will have to meet in the Elite 8. I do think Missouri has a chance to beat Memphis though and I expect this one to be a dogfight.
Pitt (5) (.964) vs Xavier (20) (.925)
Overall Efficiency: Pitt (5), Xavier (20)
Offensive Efficiency: Pitt (2), Xavier (43)
Defensive Efficiency: Pitt (35), Xavier (14)
Efficiency Prediction: Pitt
My Prediction: Pitt
Comments: If Xavier can get their offense going to go along with their stingy defense, then it's possible that Xavier could pull off an upset in this one. Xavier is 12th in the nation in three-point shooting and 8th in defensive effective FG%, so they definitely have some of the ingredients needed to beat Pitt. Pitt has looked a little sluggish so far in the tournament, but Xavier hasn't faced anyone as good as Pitt yet either. I think Pitt will pull this game out, but I don't expect it to be pretty.
Duke (8) (.956) vs Villanova (17) (.938)
Overall Efficiency: Duke (8), Villanova (17)
Offensive Efficiency: Duke (5), Villanova (22)
Defensive Efficiency: Duke (20), Villanova (19)
Efficiency Prediction: Duke
My Prediction: Duke
Comments: This is probably one of the toughest matchups to call in the Sweet 16. I think it will come down to how well Duke can control the defensive boards, since the teams are pretty even in almost every category, except that Duke is weak on the defensive glass and Villanova is a strong offensive rebounding team. If Duke can keep Villanova off the boards, then I think they win, if not then they'll lose. I honestly think Villanova has a great chance to win this game, but since I picked Duke to make the Elite 8, I'll stick to my original pick.
North Carolina (3) (.969) vs Gonzaga (6) (.962)
Overall Efficiency: North Carolina (3), Gonzaga (6)
Offensive Efficiency: North Carolina (1), Gonzaga (4)
Defensive Efficiency: North Carolina (28), Gonzaga (15)
Efficiency Prediction: North Carolina
My Prediction: North Carolina
Comments: This should be the most entertaining game of the Sweet 16 as I expect both teams to score over 80 points. Just like the Duke-Villanova game, this one is going to come down to offensive rebounding. The Tar Heels are 9th in the nation in that area, while Gonzaga is 104th in defensive rebounding. I think if the Tar Heels want to win this game they should crash the offensive boards and get some easy buckets. Gonzaga ranks 5th in both offensive and defensive effective FG%, so UNC is going to have their hands full on both ends of the court. UNC is my pick here, but I'll be sweating this one out for sure.
Syracuse (12) (.949) vs Oklahoma (13) (.944)
Overall Efficiency: Syracuse (12), Oklahoma (13)
Offensive Efficiency: Syracuse (9), Oklahoma (8)
Defensive Efficiency: Syracuse (26), Oklahoma (39)
Efficiency Prediction: Syracuse
My Prediction: Syracuse
Comments: This matchup is about as even as you can ask for and should be another great Sweet 16 game. The difference in this game is obviously going to be the Syracuse zone. In order to beat the zone, Oklahoma is going to have to show that they can consistently knock down the three-point shot. So as crazy as it sounds, Blake Griffin isn't even the most important player in this game. I do like that Syracuse has two big bodies in Onuaku and Jackson to try and slow down Griffin, but the key to this game is going to be the three point shooting of Austin Johnson, Willie Warren, Tony Crocker, and Cade Davis. I initially picked Syracuse in the Elite 8, so I'll have to stick with my pick and hope the Sooners are misfiring from the outside.
Sweet 16 Efficiency Analysis
Here are the Overall Efficiency Rankings of each Sweet 16 team before the tournament started:
1.) Memphis (1)
2.) North Carolina (2)
3.) UConn (3)
4.) Louisville (4)
5.) Gonzaga (5)
6.) Pitt (6)
7.) Duke (7)
8.) Missouri (10)
9.) Kansas (11)
10.) Michigan State (13)
11.) Purdue (14)
12.) Syracuse (15)
13.) Oklahoma (17)
14.) Villanova (19)
15.) Xavier (24)
16.) Arizona (39)
Analysis: Out of the Top 20 teams, 14 of them made the Sweet 16, including 8 of the Top 10. UCLA was 9th and lost to 19th rated Villanova. Arizona State was 12th and lost to 15th rated Syracuse. Washington was 16th and lost to 14th rated Purdue, Marquette was 20th and lost to 10th rated Missouri. West Virginia(8) and BYU(18) were the only two Top 20 teams to lose to a team outside of the Top 20. Xavier(24) & Arizona(39) are in the Sweet 16 largely because they did not play any Top 20 teams in the first two rounds, or they most likely would have lost. Although Xavier is now ranked 20th. Pretty damn good predictor if you ask me.
Here are the Offensive Efficiency Rankings of each Sweet 16 team:
1.) North Carolina (1)
2.) Pittsburgh (2)
3.) Gonzaga (4)
4.) Duke (5)
5.) Arizona (7)
6.) Oklahoma (8)
7.) Syracuse (9)
8.) UConn (13)
9.) Missouri (16)
10.) Villanova (22)
11.) Kansas (24)
12.) Memphis (25)
13.) Michigan State (30)
14.) Louisville (41)
15.) Xavier (43)
16.) Purdue (57)
Analysis: 7 out of the Top 10 offensive teams made the Sweet 16 and 13 out the 16 teams were ranked in the Top 30. UCLA(3) lost to Villanova(22), Arizona State(6) lost to Syracuse(9), Marquette(10) lost to Missouri(16). In each of those cases, the better defensive team won. Louisville(41), Xavier(43), and Purdue(57) are outliers on offense, but all have Top 15 defenses.
Here are the Defensive Efficiency Rankings of each Sweet 16 team:
1.) Memphis (1)
2.) Louisville (2)
3.) UConn (3)
4.) Purdue (5)
5.) Kansas (8)
6.) Missouri (10)
7.) Michigan State (12)
8.) Xavier (14)
9.) Gonzaga (15)
10.) Villanova (19)
11.) Duke (20)
12.) Syracuse (26)
13.) North Carolina (28)
14.) Pittsburgh (35)
15.) Oklahoma (39)
16.) Arizona (118)
Analysis: 6 of the Top 10 teams on defense made the Sweet 16 and 13 of 16 were rated in the Top 30. Illinois(4) had an offensive rating of 101. The 6th rated team did not make the tournament and the 7th rated team was Stephen F. Austin who's offense was rated 264th. Washington was rated 9th but lost to Purdue who was 5th. While defense is important, it looks like a high rated offense is a better indicator of who moves on, however, in the case of two high rated offenses, the better defensive team has been prevailing.
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