This week I thought I would take a look at each division and also take a look back at some things I had touched on in some previous posts.
AL East: Don't forget that the Tampa Bay Rays finish up with 8 games on the road against Baltimore and Detroit and the Boston Red Sox finish with 7 home games against Cleveland and New York. The Red Sox have tougher opponents than the Rays, but Tampa has struggled on the road all season, so the remaining schedule favors the Red Sox who are just 1.5 games out of first. Winning the division would make a huge difference for either one of these two because it would mean you get home field advantage against either the White Sox or Twins instead of going on the road to play the Angels.
The Rays entered September needing to go 16-11 to win 100 games on the season. At the time, it looked as though they had a good chance to do it but they have gone only 8-11 their first 19 games, so they would have to win all of their remaining games to win 100.
AL Central: The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins are still battling for the AL Central title and they have a huge 3 game series starting tonight in Minnesota. Neither team has been playing exceptionally well but I think the White Sox will hold onto the lead unless the Twins can somehow sweep the series. The White Sox finish up with Cleveland, while the Twins have what seems like a favorable matchup against the Royals. I still think the Twins will need to sweep the White Sox to have a chance at the division because the White Sox have a 3 game lead in the loss column over the Twins.
Another thing to note in the AL Central is that the Cleveland Indians will have a huge part in the playoff race because they play both the Red Sox and White Sox to finish the season. The Indians who started horrible this season have gone 37-23 in their last 60 games and will be no pushover for Boston and Chicago. So while Cleveland might not have much to play for this year, they will have a big say in who wins the AL Central and AL East.
AL West: The Angels remain the only team in the American League with a winning road record. If you remember, I had a post back in July that showed how the last 13 teams to win the AL had a winning road record. This certainly is good news if you are an Angels fan, as they look like they are the team that history says will make the World Series out of the AL. The team that may give them the biggest challenge is the Boston Red Sox, who at the time of my post needed to go 21-10 in their last 31 road games to finish with a better than .500 record. However, the Red Sox finished just 18-13 on the road and failed to reach .500. History seems to be on the Angels side, unless the Rays finish above .500, which is still possible since they are currently 35-38 on the road. They would need to go 6-2 in their last 8 games to finish above .500.
NL East: The Mets bullpen blew another lead yesterday, which has been a continuing problem for them and the main reason they now sit in second place behind the surging Phillies. Luckily for the Mets, the Brewers have also been struggling and the Mets are in the Wild Card lead by 1.5 games. Back in the middle of August, I had mentioned a key 18 game stretch for the Mets against Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, Florida, and Milwaukee; that would show us how good the Mets really are. So how did they fare during that stretch? Well, the Mets went 12-6 during that time, which is respectable and I think proves that they are a legit playoff team. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies and Brewers also are legit playoff contenders and it looks like either the Mets or Brewers will be the odd team out.
NL Central: I haven't talked much about the Cubs this season, other than mentioning I thought they were still the favorites in the NL once they acquired Rich Harden. I probably should have shown the Cubs more love this season, but the truth is I picked them to win the NL Central from the start and they have pretty much owned that division all year. So in a way, since they have met all my expectations I kind of put them on the back burner a little. Well, it's time to show the Cubs some love because they really have a strong team this year and a great chance to win the World Series. Let me start by saying that I love the balance of their lineup. The Cubs have 6 of their 8 starters with an OPS+ greater than 110, which means they have 6 guys in their lineup who are above average. The only playoff contender in the NL who can match that was the Mets before Fernando Tatis was injured. So it is no surprise that the Cubs have the best offense in the NL, averaging 5.3 runs a game with a 110 OPS+. In fact, even with the pitcher batting all season, the Cubs would be the second best offense in the AL behind only the Texas Rangers. Their pitching is not too shabby allowing just 4.1 runs a game with a 3.85 ERA and 177 ERA+. The Cubs have the third best pitching staff in the majors behind only the Dodgers and and Blue Jays. Certainly a team with the best offense and 2nd best pitching of any playoff contender has a great chance of winning the World Series. The key for them will be making sure that Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden remain healthy.
Meanwhile, I noted that the Brewers were 5th in the NL with a 106 OPS+ and 6th in pitching with a 105 ERA+, at the time of the C.C. Sabathia trade. Since then, their pitching has improved to a 110 ERA+, which is good for 5th in the league, but their offense has dipped to a 103 OPS+, which may explain why they have been slumping lately.
NL West:Back at the trade deadline, there were two huge moves made in the NL West. Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers and Adam Dunn was sent to the Diamondbacks. I argued that the Manny Ramirez deal would have far more impact that the Adam Dunn trade. Dunn has been decent for the Diamondbacks, hitting .246/6 HR/21 RBI/.418 OBP/.449 SLG. However, his addition alone did not improve the Diamondbacks offense because their average, slugging, and OPS has not changed since Dunn joined the team. Arizona has gone only 18-19 since they acquired Dunn, while Ramirez has had far more impact on the Dodgers. Manny has hit .404/16 HR/49 RBI/.490 OBP/.760 SLG, since joining the Dodgers and led them to a 27-21 record. The Dodgers currently hold a 2.5 game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West.
Other MLB News:
- The Red Sox suspended Bartolo Colon for the rest of the season because he did not want to pitch in the bullpen.
- Ben Sheets left his last start with pain in his elbow and that elbow pain has been lingering for most of the season. Sheets is a free agent this off-season and I would not want to be the team that gives him a big contract because he is never healthy and this injury certainly doesn't do anything to change that.
- Ichiro Suzuki collected his 8th straight 200 hit season, which tied him with Willie Keeler for the major league record. He also set the AL record, by passing Wade Boggs who he had shared the record with after last season.
- A breakdown of David Price's pitching mechanics, which look pretty solid. Price is going to be making his first start on Monday against the Orioles. Price has thrown 6 innings out of the bullpen for the Rays, giving up just 2 runs and striking out 6.
- Looks like Erik Bedard is going to have shoulder surgery, which in my mind could effect his 2009 season as well. The Orioles certainly have benefited from the Bedard trade having picked up Adam Jones and George Sherrill in that deal.
- Mariano Rivera moved into second place on the all-time saves list passing Lee Smith. Rivera now has 480 saves in his career.
More: MLB & MLB Weekly
AL East: Don't forget that the Tampa Bay Rays finish up with 8 games on the road against Baltimore and Detroit and the Boston Red Sox finish with 7 home games against Cleveland and New York. The Red Sox have tougher opponents than the Rays, but Tampa has struggled on the road all season, so the remaining schedule favors the Red Sox who are just 1.5 games out of first. Winning the division would make a huge difference for either one of these two because it would mean you get home field advantage against either the White Sox or Twins instead of going on the road to play the Angels.
The Rays entered September needing to go 16-11 to win 100 games on the season. At the time, it looked as though they had a good chance to do it but they have gone only 8-11 their first 19 games, so they would have to win all of their remaining games to win 100.
AL Central: The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins are still battling for the AL Central title and they have a huge 3 game series starting tonight in Minnesota. Neither team has been playing exceptionally well but I think the White Sox will hold onto the lead unless the Twins can somehow sweep the series. The White Sox finish up with Cleveland, while the Twins have what seems like a favorable matchup against the Royals. I still think the Twins will need to sweep the White Sox to have a chance at the division because the White Sox have a 3 game lead in the loss column over the Twins.
Another thing to note in the AL Central is that the Cleveland Indians will have a huge part in the playoff race because they play both the Red Sox and White Sox to finish the season. The Indians who started horrible this season have gone 37-23 in their last 60 games and will be no pushover for Boston and Chicago. So while Cleveland might not have much to play for this year, they will have a big say in who wins the AL Central and AL East.
AL West: The Angels remain the only team in the American League with a winning road record. If you remember, I had a post back in July that showed how the last 13 teams to win the AL had a winning road record. This certainly is good news if you are an Angels fan, as they look like they are the team that history says will make the World Series out of the AL. The team that may give them the biggest challenge is the Boston Red Sox, who at the time of my post needed to go 21-10 in their last 31 road games to finish with a better than .500 record. However, the Red Sox finished just 18-13 on the road and failed to reach .500. History seems to be on the Angels side, unless the Rays finish above .500, which is still possible since they are currently 35-38 on the road. They would need to go 6-2 in their last 8 games to finish above .500.
NL East: The Mets bullpen blew another lead yesterday, which has been a continuing problem for them and the main reason they now sit in second place behind the surging Phillies. Luckily for the Mets, the Brewers have also been struggling and the Mets are in the Wild Card lead by 1.5 games. Back in the middle of August, I had mentioned a key 18 game stretch for the Mets against Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, Florida, and Milwaukee; that would show us how good the Mets really are. So how did they fare during that stretch? Well, the Mets went 12-6 during that time, which is respectable and I think proves that they are a legit playoff team. Unfortunately for them, the Phillies and Brewers also are legit playoff contenders and it looks like either the Mets or Brewers will be the odd team out.
NL Central: I haven't talked much about the Cubs this season, other than mentioning I thought they were still the favorites in the NL once they acquired Rich Harden. I probably should have shown the Cubs more love this season, but the truth is I picked them to win the NL Central from the start and they have pretty much owned that division all year. So in a way, since they have met all my expectations I kind of put them on the back burner a little. Well, it's time to show the Cubs some love because they really have a strong team this year and a great chance to win the World Series. Let me start by saying that I love the balance of their lineup. The Cubs have 6 of their 8 starters with an OPS+ greater than 110, which means they have 6 guys in their lineup who are above average. The only playoff contender in the NL who can match that was the Mets before Fernando Tatis was injured. So it is no surprise that the Cubs have the best offense in the NL, averaging 5.3 runs a game with a 110 OPS+. In fact, even with the pitcher batting all season, the Cubs would be the second best offense in the AL behind only the Texas Rangers. Their pitching is not too shabby allowing just 4.1 runs a game with a 3.85 ERA and 177 ERA+. The Cubs have the third best pitching staff in the majors behind only the Dodgers and and Blue Jays. Certainly a team with the best offense and 2nd best pitching of any playoff contender has a great chance of winning the World Series. The key for them will be making sure that Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden remain healthy.
Meanwhile, I noted that the Brewers were 5th in the NL with a 106 OPS+ and 6th in pitching with a 105 ERA+, at the time of the C.C. Sabathia trade. Since then, their pitching has improved to a 110 ERA+, which is good for 5th in the league, but their offense has dipped to a 103 OPS+, which may explain why they have been slumping lately.
NL West:Back at the trade deadline, there were two huge moves made in the NL West. Manny Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers and Adam Dunn was sent to the Diamondbacks. I argued that the Manny Ramirez deal would have far more impact that the Adam Dunn trade. Dunn has been decent for the Diamondbacks, hitting .246/6 HR/21 RBI/.418 OBP/.449 SLG. However, his addition alone did not improve the Diamondbacks offense because their average, slugging, and OPS has not changed since Dunn joined the team. Arizona has gone only 18-19 since they acquired Dunn, while Ramirez has had far more impact on the Dodgers. Manny has hit .404/16 HR/49 RBI/.490 OBP/.760 SLG, since joining the Dodgers and led them to a 27-21 record. The Dodgers currently hold a 2.5 game lead over the Diamondbacks in the NL West.
Other MLB News:
- The Red Sox suspended Bartolo Colon for the rest of the season because he did not want to pitch in the bullpen.
- Ben Sheets left his last start with pain in his elbow and that elbow pain has been lingering for most of the season. Sheets is a free agent this off-season and I would not want to be the team that gives him a big contract because he is never healthy and this injury certainly doesn't do anything to change that.
- Ichiro Suzuki collected his 8th straight 200 hit season, which tied him with Willie Keeler for the major league record. He also set the AL record, by passing Wade Boggs who he had shared the record with after last season.
- A breakdown of David Price's pitching mechanics, which look pretty solid. Price is going to be making his first start on Monday against the Orioles. Price has thrown 6 innings out of the bullpen for the Rays, giving up just 2 runs and striking out 6.
- Looks like Erik Bedard is going to have shoulder surgery, which in my mind could effect his 2009 season as well. The Orioles certainly have benefited from the Bedard trade having picked up Adam Jones and George Sherrill in that deal.
- Mariano Rivera moved into second place on the all-time saves list passing Lee Smith. Rivera now has 480 saves in his career.
More: MLB & MLB Weekly
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