Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency at the end of the regular season with strength of schedule in parentheses:1. Memphis .978 (64)
2. North Carolina .973 (17)
3. Connecticut .969 (24)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (19)
5. Gonzaga .965 (87)
6. Duke .961 (8)
7. UCLA .960 (39)
8. Louisville .960 (23)
9. West Virginia .953 (12)
10. Kansas .951 (38)
Last Week:
1. Memphis .978 (61)
2. North Carolina .973 (19)
3. Connecticut .970 (30)
4. Pittsburgh .966 (22)
5. Duke .965 (13)
6. Kansas .960 (38)
7. Louisville .959 (20)
8. West Virginia .958 (7)
9. UCLA .956 (27)
10. Missouri .952 (78)
Gonzaga: Gonzaga enters the Top 10 in a big way by winning their conference tournament and shooting all the way up to 5. I have had my eye on them all season and I think they are a legit candidate to make the Final 4. I would have put them on my list last week, but they were not in the Top 10. After cruising through their conference tournament, their efficiency rating shot right up and they now are right up there with the big boys. I am somewhat skeptical of their efficiency rating, because they haven't played anyone decent since they lost to Memphis(1) at home more than a month ago. However, I still think they are a solid team with their best wins coming against Oklahoma State(31), Washington State(35), Tennessee(38) twice, St. Mary's(60) three times, and Maryland(63). They also played UConn(3) close, along with Arizona(34) and Utah(26). Their only suspect loss was to Portland State(121) who may very well be a tournament team if they can win the Big Sky tournament. So while I am not completely sold on Gonzaga, I think if Gonzaga gets into the bracket that does not have UConn, Pitt, or UNC then they can definitely make an under the radar run the Final 4. The good thing is that I'm thinking whoever the 4th # 1 seed is will get shipped out West and there's a good chance Gonzaga gets to stay out West as well. This is the best case scenerio for Gonzaga if they want to make the Final 4.
North Carolina: At this point, I am convinced that either Pitt, UConn, or UNC will win the national title. If you are considering picking anyone else, I'd like to hear why. North Carolina to me is the deepest team of these three, but their defense is still not quite championship caliber. The Tarheels are 74th in Defensive Effective FG%, which is the most important indicator for success on defense. While 74th isn't bad, it's most likely not good enough to win it all. Here are the Def. Eff. FG% ratings of the last 5 champions: Kansas(9), Florida(18), Florida(16), North Carolina(36), UConn(1). So right there you can see that UNC could be in trouble if they don't improve their defense some more. I personally think they should play freshman big man Ed Davis in the middle instead of Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough. Offensively, Davis and Thompson are a wash, but Davis a much better rebounder and shot blocker than Thompson. In fact, he's one of the best in the country in both areas. He is 23rd in defensive rebounding rate and 42nd in block rate, compared to Thompson who is 496th in defensive rebounding rate and 261st in block rate. I think it's time that Roy Williams to start playing him more, especially since they will need him to beat Pitt or UConn should they meet them down the road. Pay close attention to the ACC tournament to see if Davis gets more minutes. If he doesn't then that might be bad sign once the Final 4 roles around, but if he does get more minutes, then I expect UNC to cut down the nets this year in Detroit.
Other Thoughts:
- After watching both teams play last night, I think VCU and Siena are the two mid-major teams everyone should be looking at come tournament time. They definitely have the talent to go a couple rounds depending on the matchups. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other mid-major teams that I could see advancing to the Sweet 16, unless you consider Gonzaga or BYU to be mid-majors, which I don't.
- As soon as the NCAA field is set on Sunday, expect to see a bunch of posts here analyzing the current tournament, as well as, historical trends for the Final 4 and upsets. You can check out last year's analysis here: 2008 NCAA Tournament Final Analysis. I will be updating all these posts to include the results from last season and also taking a look at the 2009 tournament. I'm still working on a strategy for picking early round games, but I really feel like the analysis from last year is a solid predictor for the Final 4 and Elite 8. This year looks like it could be especially tricky though and we could have a George Mason type situation, although I don't think it will be a team that random. It's more likely that if a team does make a "cinderella" like run it will be a Syracuse, BYU, or Arizona State type team, instead of a mid-major team like George Mason.
More: NCAA Basketball
No comments:
Post a Comment