Wild Card Rundown:
San Diego Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 17: I picked the Colts to win this game even after stating all of these facts:- The Chargers are actually the home team despite having 4 less wins than the Colts.
- The Chargers have typically given the Colts trouble over the years and have beat them in the playoffs before.
- The Colts have the second worst rush offense in the league averaging 79.6 yards a game.
- The Colts are also 24th in rush defense giving up 122.9 yards a game on the ground.
So what happened? Well the Chargers held the Colts to just 64 yards rushing and 2.9 yards a carry and ran the ball themselves for a whopping 167 yards, which is pretty much exactly what you would excpect by looking at the numbers above. I should have stuck to the facts and predicted a Chargers victory, but I thought Peyton Manning would be able to put up more points threw the air, which wasn't the case. The Colts are usually less explosive on the road even when they had a great offense, so I should have saw this coming. I had the facts right, I just didn't use them.
Darren Sproles: Sproles was the man in this game finishing with 328 all-purpose yards, including 105 yards rushing, 45 yards receiving, and the game winning touchdown in overtime. He also had another rushing touchdown earlier in the game. Sproles is like a mini-Brian Westbrook to me and I think the Chargers need to give him more touches next season to help ease the workload on LT, who seem to be in decline after seeing his yards per carry drop the last three seasons from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 this year.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Miami Dolphins 9: I had this game pegged correctly with a prediction of Ravens 24 Dolphins 6:
The Dolphins spent most of their season winning against mediocre and poor defenses. Check out the defensive ratings of all the teams they beat throughout the season: New England(10), San Francisco (13), Buffalo(14), NY Jets(16), San Diego(25), Oakland(27), St. Louis(28), Denver(29), Seattle(30), Kansas City(31). Yup, that's right 6 of their 11 wins came against teams that were among the 8 worst defenses in the NFL. The best defense they beat was the Patriots in Week 3 who later went on to crush them at home 48-28. Look for Baltimore's 4th ranked rushing offense(148.5 yards/game) to help the Ravens dominant the time of possession, which will make it even tougher for the Dolphins to score on their defense. I expect the Ravens to come out on top against the Dolphins in this one and it might not be that close.
The Dolphins struggled offensively all day in this one. Chad Pennington threw 4 picks and the running game only mustered up 52 yards. The Ravens were true to form forcing 5 turnovers and rushing for 151 yards. The Ravens know you can win a lot of football games with a turnover and rushing combo like that.
Ed Reed: Ed Reed is still a ballhawk, coming through with 2 interceptions and a 64 yard touchdown return. The man is quite simply one of the best defensive playmakers of our time. It's time for him to start getting some more love around the country. EdTheSportsFan showed him some props as well.
Arizona Cardinals 30 Atlanta Falcons 24: I had the Falcons in this one 34-27, but turnovers proved to be costly to them. As soon as the Falcons got down in this game, I thought they might be in trouble, because they might get away from the running game a little too much, which was the key to them winning:
This is a matchup against a great running team versus one that can't run to save it's life. Atlanta is second in the league with 152.7 yards a game on the ground versus the Cardinals who average just 73.6 yards a game which is worst in the NFL. So while both of these teams are bad on defense, I think the Falcons will be able to keep the Cardinals high octane passing game off the field by controlling the clock with their running game. That is the best formula for them to beat the Cardinals on the road by limiting the amount of chances Kurt Warner and company have to throw against the Falcons 21st ranked pass defense.
The Cardinals did a great job of slowing down the Falcons run game, limiting them to just 60 yards on 24 carries. Maybe the Falcons should have stuck with the run a little more, but the fact is that they weren't effective on the ground and I can't really blame them for trying to pass it instead. The Matt Ryan fumble and then TD return by Antrel Rolle was probably the difference in this game. I think the Falcons would have won if not for that play, so the Cardinals defense definitely deserves some props for stepping it up.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Minnesota Vikings 14: I pretty much nailed this one with my analysis from last week's Wild Card preview post:
This is an interesting matchup because the Eagles biggest potential weakness is running the ball and the Vikings are 1st in the league in stopping the run allowing just 76.9 yards a game. If Philly isn't able to get a good ground game going they could struggle to score points. If the Eagles can't get the running game going, you may see them throw short screen passes to Brian Westbrook on first down instead. Fortunately for the Eagles, they are also strong at stopping the run and are 4th in the NFL allowing just 92.3 yards a game on the ground. I think they will load up against Adrian Peterson and force Tavaris Jackson to beat them in the passing game. If the Eagles are successful in containing Peterson than I think they will win the game. They should be able to have enough success passing the ball against the Vikings who are ranked 18th in pass defense to generate some points offensively.
While the Eagles didn't really contain the Vikings running game by allowing 148 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, they did force Tavaris Jackson into 35 pass attempts, which is definitely in the Eagles favor. The Eagles also had good success passing the ball for 283 yards on the Vikings. However, I nailed the play of the game, which was Brian Westbrook's 71 yard TD on a screen pass. Westbrook was struggling to run the ball all game against the Vikings defense and had just 38 yards on 20 carries, so the Eagles did what I thought they would do if they struggled to run. They threw a first down screen pass to Brian Westbrook, which resulted in the 71 yard TD. Good call by me and good call by the Eagles. They probably should have ran it earlier in the game though and maybe even given Correll Buckhalter a few more carries.
Asante Samuel: Once again Asante Samuel came up with some timely thievery and returned an interception 44 yards for a TD. If Ed Reed is the best play making safety, then Samuel has to be the best play making corner in the game and he always seems to come up big in the playoffs. The TD was Samuel's fourth career postseason interception return for a touchdown, which set an NFL record.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3): Offensively and defensively, these two teams are mirror images of each other:
- They both are rushing dominated offenses, who also stop the run well: TEN 137.4 yards vs BAL 148.5 yards on offense and TEN 93.9 yards vs BAL 81.4 yards on defense.
- They both pass very little and defend the pass well: TEN 176.2 yards vs BAL 175.5 yards on offense and TEN 199.8 yards vs BAL 179.7 yards on defense.
These might be the two most similar teams in the NFL, so I would not be surprised if either team won this game. I am going to pick the Titans though because I think Kerry Collins will protect the ball better than Joe Flacco will. The Ravens were able to beat the Dolphins, but Flacco did not play well at all, completing just 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards. I don't think the Ravens will be able to run on the Titans like they did against the Dolphins, so Flacco is going to have to make some plays down the field with his big arm and I just don't see that happening. I think the only way the Ravens win this game is if they can force the Titans to turn the ball over, which is certainly possible. I'm pretty sure Jeff Fisher and the Titans know this though and will make sure they take extra care of the football.
Prediction: Titans 16 Ravens 13
Arizona Cardinals (9-7) at Carolina Panthers (12-4): These two teams are a lot more similar then you would think on the defense side of the ball. They allow about an equal amount of rushing and passing yards(331 total yards allowed for both). On the offense side of things, they are complete opposites. The Panthers(152.3 yards) are way better at running the ball than the Cardinals(73.6 yards). Yup, they Panthers average more than double the rushing yards that Arizona does. The passing game of course favors the Cardinals(292.1 vs 197.4), which is what you would expect. The key to this game is going to be Arizona's ability to stop the run. They would actually have a chance to win the game if they can do that. However, I'm not sure they can stop the Panthers run game and hold Steve Smith in check at the same time. If this game was at Arizona, I would seriously think about picking them to win this game, but the Cardinals have shown nothing on the road this season or out of their division to make me think they can win a road playoff game. I honestly think Carolina is somewhat overrated though.
Prediction: Panthers 28 Cardinals 24
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at New York Giants (12-4): I'm going for the upset in this game and saying that the Eagles will knock off the Giants. The Eagles and Giants defense are about equal and Philly is actually a better passing team than the Giants. The loss of Plaxico Burress hurts the Giants deep passing game and I think Asante Samuel is going be able to pick off Eli Manning at least once in this game. They key of course is if the Eagles will be able to get a good balance of run and pass or short pass and pass on offense. Westbrook is the key and McNabb needs to protect the football. I think the Eagles will pull it off, if not then the Giants will be headed back to the Super Bowl.
Prediction: Eagles 23 Giants 20
San Diego Chargers (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): The Chargers are better offensively and the Steelers are better defensively. I really don't like the Steelers offense and I think that the Chargers defense has a better chance of playing better than their numbers than the Steelers offense does. Part of me believes that the Chargers will somehow pull this game out, but I think it is going to be tough for them to win on the road in Pittsburgh in the cold against that great Pittsburgh defense.
Prediction: Steelers 20 Chargers 14
Other NFL News:
Mike Shanahan: I was pretty shocked to learn that the Broncos fired coach Mike Shanahan; not because he didn't deserve to be fired, but I just assumed that the Broncos were going to stick with Shanahan forever. I've always felt like Shanahan rode the coat tails of John Elway and Terrell Davis to two Super Bowl titles and that may be unfair, but he didn't really do much to convince me otherwise after those two guys retired. I'm sure Shanahan will find a good job, but the team that gets him might be a little disappointed in the results.
Matt Cassel: The New England Patriots have made the smart decision to franchise QB Matt Cassel, which means wherever he plays next season he will be making in excess of $14 million a year. The Patriots will either keep Cassel if Tom Brady is not ready to play next season or they can trade him and receive a 1st and 3rd round pick as compensation. Pretty good deal for the Pats and a no-brainer move.
Awards:
MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
Defensive Player of The Year: James Harrison, LB, Steelers
Comeback Player of The Year: Chad Pennington, QB, Dolphins
Off. Rookie of The Year: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons
Def. Rookie of The Year: Jerod Mayo, LB, Patriots
Coach of The Year: Mike Smith, Falcons
More: NFL & NFL Weekly
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