Overall Efficiency:
Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:
1. West Virginia .986 (48)
2. Duke .984 (92)
3. Pittsburgh .977 (70)
4. Georgetown .974 (23)
5. North Carolina .972 (77)
6. Connecticut .969 (121)
7. Arizona State .966 (93)
8. Gonzaga .965 (10)
9. Memphis .959 (103)
10. Wake Forest .958 (279)
Last Week:
1. Georgetown .992 (59)
2. West Virginia .985 (90)
3. Pittsburgh .985 (143)
4. North Carolina .985 (101)
5. Duke .983 (88)
6. Gonzaga .979 (14)
7. Arizona State .974 (155)
8. Connecticut .973 (117)
9. Missouri .971 (227)
10. Louisville .970 (240)
Memphis(9) & Wake Forest(10) enter the top 10 this week. Louisville(20) dropped way out of the top 10 thanks to their anemic offense, which is rated 217th overall. They still rank outside the top 100 in 3 of the 4 key indicators on offense, but have managed to win games with their #1 ranked defense. Joining Louisville in dropping out of the top 10(just barely) is Missouri(11). Now that conference play has started, you can see the overall efficiency ratings are starting to drop, and some of the more consistent teams are starting to move up in the rankings.
Pitt: Pitt absolutely destroyed the Hoyas over the weekend 70-54 at Georgetown and is now ranked # 1 in the polls for the first time ever. Pitt is a legitimate choice as one of the best teams in the nation. They rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. The defensive rating is no surprise, but the offensive rating is certainly one that might come as a surprise to some. They are ranked only a modest 77th in off. effective FG%, but they rank 21st in protecting the basketball and 6th in offensive rebounding, which is why their offense has such a high rating. The fact they are good at protecting the ball and rebounding it is no surprise when you have Levance Fields(4.8/1 assist to TO ratio) and DeJuan Blair(12.5 rebounds a game). Throw in the efficient scoring of Sam Young(19.5 points, 51.7% FG, 37.5% 3FG) and you have a pretty versatile team that is going to have a great chance to win every night. Getting back to the rebounding, Pitt is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and they were able to expose one of Georgetown's two weaknesses(the other being depth) by outrebounding Georgetown 43-17. The Hoyas rank 179th in offensive rebounding and an atrocious 306th in defensive rebounding. In other words, we all should have seen the loss to Pitt coming.
North Carolina: The Tarheels suffered an 85-78 home loss to Boston College, which was their first loss of the season. Now this loss came as a surprise to some because many people see UNC as the best team and thought they might even go undefeated. However, in overall efficiency they have yet to be ranked # 1 this season, which doesn't mean they aren't the best team, but it does show that they have flaws and can be beaten. From what I saw against BC, the Tar Heels played some poor defense down low and gave up a lot of easy baskets in the paint. While UNC does rank 25th in defensive efficiency, they are only a modest 61st in defensive effective FG% and a ranking of 102 in defensive rebounding shows that they are certainly not the best at controlling the boards. If we look at the BC game, you can see that UNC outrebounded UNC 45-38, but they also shot only 38.4% from the floor and missed 12 of their 27 free throw attempts. I don't expect UNC to repeat such a poor performance that often, however, it is worth noting that BC is the only team to have an effective FG% above 50.0%, a TO rate less than 15%, and an offensive rebound rate greater than 40% against UNC this season. They also were one of only two teams(Kentucky) to hold UNC to under 50.0% in effective FG%. This would suggest that just like any other team if you shoot a good percentage from the floor, don't turn the ball over, crash the offensive boards, and play solid D, there is an excellent chance for UNC to be beaten. I guarantee Duke will beat UNC at least once this season, since they are strong in all those areas except turnovers. In fact, the next time you might see UNC lose is at Wake Forest on Sunday. They are also strong in all the areas needed to beat UNC except turnovers.
Wake Forest/BYU: Wake Forest ended the nations longest home winning streak by defeating a solid BYU(15) team 94-87 on the road. BYU had won 53 straight at home before losing this game and I actually like both of these teams. Consider that Wake Forest is actually the 6th best defensive team in the nation and BYU still put up 87 points on them and while BYU's defense is ranked only 62nd overall, I would imagine that the 94 points they gave up to Wake Forest had more to do with the Dunkin' Deacons insane athletic ability than a horrible BYU defense. The 36 free throw attempts by Wake Forest would probably be evidence of their superior athletic ability. BYU put up an offensive efficiency rating of 103.8 for the game, which was actually their worst of the season, so while Wake Forest's 6th rated defense managed to slow them down, they still put up 87 points. Consider that BYU only has two losses this season and both are to teams ranked in the top 10 in overall efficiency: a 1 points loss to Arizona State(7) and this loss to Wake Forest(10). There is still a lot of season left, but if BYU runs through the Mountain West Conference with only a loss or two, they are definitely a team you want to look at as a sleeper to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. You already know I'm high on Wake Forest too, since I think they have a great chance to knock off UNC this Sunday.
Teams To Keep An Eye On:
California: The Cal Bears(29) are a team I have been keeping my eye on for a few weeks now, but I wanted to wait and see how they played against another quality opponent before talking them up. My main concern was their disastrous 93-66 loss to Missouri(11). They also lost to an average Florida State(75) team, but had solid victories over Utah(47) and UNLV(61). However, just this past weekend they were able to knock off both Arizona(55) and Arizona State(7), which are definitely two more quality wins. The reason I have had my eye on Cal is their 16th rated offense, which is fueled by their high effective FG% of 55.8%(12th overall), their low turnover percentage(14th overall), and the nations best three point shooting at 50.5%. Yup, that's right, the Cal Bears shoot over 50.0% from behind the arc, which is deadly to say the least. The second best three point shooting team is only at 42.9%, which shows you just how insane Cal's three point shooting is. Sharp shooters on the team include the 5'10 Jerome Randle(19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 54.1% FG, 55.9% 3FG), Theo Robertson(11.9 points, 48.2% FG, 61.7% 3FG), and Patrick Christopher(15.0 points, 48.3% FG, 37.8% 3FG). They struggle on the offensive boards(172nd overall), but hold their own on the defensive boards(53rd overall), and they don't turn other teams over, but with such deadly three point shooting they could be a dangerous team come tournament time.
Players Catching Wreck:
Devan Downey, South Carolina: At just 5'9, Downey may be small in stature, but he is a big time player on the court for South Carolina. He led SC to an upset victory over the weekend against the 23rd ranked Baylor Bears finishing with 23 points and 8 assists. He also poured in 37 points against an undefeated Clemson last week and has South Carolina(54) off to an 11-2 start headed into SEC play. He's also a thief out on the court averaging 3.1 steals a game, good for 7th best in nation. His size may keep him from playing at the next level, but he certainly will get plenty of looks if he keeps performing at such a high level.
Stats: 20.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.1 steals, 46.5% FG , 34.6% 3FG
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Keith Cothran , Rhode Island: Cothran is a 6'4 Junior for the Rams who is quietly putting together a solid season. Cothran is not someone who will put up big numbers, but he is consistent on a night to night basis for a Rams team that has a high octane offense. Cothran has also improved his outside shooting hitting on 38.6% of his three-pointers after connecting on just 23.9% last season. If the Rams are successful this season, look for Cothran to play major part in that success helping out sharp shooter Jimmy Baron with the scoring load.
Stats: 14.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 50.6% FG, 38.6%.
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