Wednesday, May 13, 2009

MLB Weekly: Edwin Jackson, Red Sox Home/Road Batting Splits, Ryan Zimmerman, Johnny Cueto, & More


Here are the team OPS+ and ERA+ totals so far this season, via Baseball Reference:

AL Team OPS+

1. Toronto Blue Jays (117)
2. Texas Rangers (115)
3. New York Yankees (111)
4. Boston Red Sox (110)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (104)
6. Minnesota Twins (102)
7. Kansas City Royals (101)
8. Cleveland Indians (99)
9. Baltimore Orioles (99)
10. Detroit Tigers (93)
11. Los Angeles Angels (92)
12. Chicago White Sox (85)
13. Seattle Mariners (82)
14. Oakland A's (79)


Comments:

- The Yankees offense has looked good so far even without Mark Teixeira doing much of anything right now and A-Rod just returning. It's still their pitching that is keeping them as an average team instead of a great one. However, with Jorge Posada hurt and now Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter missing time with injuries, you have to wonder how many hits they can take to their lineup before their hitting starts to suffer as well.

- The Red Sox have a strong offense for sure, but check out their home/road splits:

Home: .308 AVG/.391 OBP/.527 SLG/.918 OPS

Road: .253 AVG/.347 OBP/.391 SLG/.739 OPS

That's a huge difference, especially in the slugging which is 136 points worse on the road. Makes you wonder how many of those doubles they hit off the Green Monster and home runs that go over the Green Monster are really just your average fly ball outs in other parks. Sure looks that way.

- Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Kansas City are all starting to hit better after slow starts this season with the bats.

NL Team OPS+

1. Washington Nationals (108)
2. New York Mets (107)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (106)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (105)
5. St. Louis Cardinals (104)
6. Philadelphia Phillies (101)
7. Colorado Rockies (97)
8. Atlanta Braves (95)
9. San Diego Padres (91)
10. Pittsburgh Pirates (90)
11. Cincinnati Reds (89)
12. Chicago Cubs (89)
13. Houston Astros (88)
14. Florida Marlins (81)
15. Arizona Diamondbacks (76)
16. San Francisco Giants (75)

Comments:

- Still 10 teams in the NL that are below average offensively.

- This is what I said a few weeks ago about the Cardinals when they had an NL leading 124 OPS+:

The Cardinals have far and away the best offense in the NL right now, but I don't expect them to sustain their current level. They have a couple players, like Yadier Molina & Joe Thurston, who are off to hot starts and will probably cool off at some point.

Since then they have dropped 20 points in OPS+ and now have just the 5th best offense in the NL. See I know what I'm talking about people.

Other teams that took a dive in OPS+ in the NL are the Padres, Pirates, and Marlins.

- A few weeks back the Phillies, Mets, and Cubs were underperforming with the bats:

It's surprising to see teams like the Phillies(100), Mets(99), and Cubs(90) struggling with average to below average offenses when they were expected to be elite offenses this season. It's still early, so I expect all 3 to pick things up offensively, but out of these three teams the Cubs have the best pitching, so they could sustain a drop an offense and compete better than the other two teams.

Well, the Mets have improved with the bats, which is why they lead the NL East right now. The Cubs are still struggling, but their pitching is keeping them afloat in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Phillies continue to just be average with the bats and since they have no pitching I have a hard time believing they can hang around with the Mets if their offense doesn't starting hitting the ball some more. The worse offender in their lineup has been Jimmy Rollins, who has really struggled for the Phillies hitting just .198 with 1 HR and 10 RBI. That's good for a 30 OPS+, which means he's been 70% worse than average. Ouch.

- Nope, your eyes are not deceiving you, the Washington Nationals lead the NL in hitting with a 108 OPS+. Most of that is due to Ryan Zimmeran and Adam Dunn, who are both off to tremendous starts. Zimmerman currently has 29-game hit streak and is batting .364 AVG/.408 OBP/.621 SLG/ 1.029 OPS on the year with 8 HR and 26 RBI. Meanwhile, Dunn could be on the way to having his best season ever as he is currently hitting .313 AVG/.448 OBP/.643 SLG/1.091 OPS with 11 HR and 28 RBI. However, Zimmerman and Dunn aren't the only players doing well at the plate for the Nationals as everyone of their regulars has an OPS+ over 100 on the season except for 2B Anderson Hernandez. All of their regulars do have OBP over .351 though, which shows that this is a patient team, which you would expect with Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson in their lineup.

AL Team ERA+

1. Kansas City Royals (125)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (114)
3. Detroit Tigers (114)
4. Oakland A's (113)
5. Seattle Mariners (107)
6. Chicago White Sox (106)
7. Los Angeles Angels (104)
8. Boston Red Sox (104)
9. Tampa Bay Rays (102)
10. Texas Rangers (99)
11. Baltimore Orioles (89)
12. Minnesota Twins (85)
13. Cleveland Indians (83)
14. New York Yankees (81)


Comments:

- The Rangers pitching has improved to just below average and I think with the combination of their offense and being in a weak hitting AL West that if they can keep their pitching around league average then they can compete in that division and possible win it. One pitcher to keep an eye on for them is rookie lefty Derek Holland, who is in their bullpen right now, but could be starting for them as early as June.

- The Royals pitching continues to do well and now that their offense is above average they have climbed to second place in the AL Central with an 18-15 record. I'm not sure their pitching will continue to be so good though, because most of their league leading ERA+ number is due to Zach Grienke's outrageous start with an ERA+ of 903, which means he's been 9 times better than an average starter. Joakim Soria's shoulder injury is definitely a concern as well.

- The Tigers pitching has been somewhat surprising to start the season, mostly due to the emergence of Edwin Jackson. Jackson had a solid season for the Rays last year, but this year he is showing the stuff of a possible ace. Jackson has increased his strikeouts and decreased his walks per 9 innings this season. In fact, since he's been a starter, he has decreased his hits and walks per 9 innings every season. He's currently 2-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 35 K's in 45 innings. If this trend continues throughout the season then Jackson, who is still just 25 years old, might be on his way to becoming one of the top pitchers in the game.

NL Team ERA+

1. Cincinnati Reds (115)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (114)
3. New York Mets (112)
4. San Francisco Giants (110)
5. Atlanta Braves (109)
6. Milwaukee Brewers (106)
7. Arizona Diamondbacks (106)
8. Colorado Rockies (105)
9. St. Louis Cardinals (104)
10. Chicago Cubs (101)
11. Pittsburgh Pirates (100)
12. Florida Marlins (100)
13. Houston Astros (95)
14. Philadelphia Phillies (84)
15. San Diego Padres (82)
16. Washington Nationals (81)


Comments:

- Remember when I said this about the Pirates pitching:

The Pirates pitching has been surprisingly good so far this season posting a NL high 146 ERA+. They also lead the NL in ERA at 3.29 and are second in WHIP at 1.27. However, they are dead last in the NL in strikeouts with just 69 K's in 123 innings pitched. The low amount of strikeouts suggests to me that their pitchers do not have the best stuff and have been getting somewhat lucky to start to season, unless of course they have a bunch of Greg Maddux types out there on the mound, which I highly doubt.

Well just a few weeks later than are down to an ERA+ of 100, an ERA almost a full run higher at 4.20, and a WHIP of 1.40. Told you it wouldn't last and it didn't take long to prove it.

- If the Reds could make some improvements on offense then they would have a chance to be this year's Rays because their top 3 pitchers are pretty solid in Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto, which is the main reason they lead the NL in pitching right now. Cueto has been especially strong this season going 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 286 ERA+, while striking out 32 in 39 innings of work. I don't think their offense is good enough to compare to last season's Rays though, which means they can probably contend for a playoff spot this season, but I don't see them making it to the World Series if they do manage to get into the playoffs.

More MLB News:

- For my money, the Dodgers and Mets are the two best teams in the NL right now. The Dodgers will certainly miss Manny, but their pitching is strong enough in a weak hitting division for them to manage without him. I would actually favor the Dodgers as the best team in the NL once Manny comes back, because the Mets starting pitching other than Santana has ranged from awful to average. The bullpen is strong with K-Rod, Putz, and some other arms throwing well right now, but I don't think they have enough pitching to get it done right now. The Cubs certainly are right in the mix and could be the best team in the NL by the end of the regular season. I also see the Phillies being there in the end and the Brewers, Braves, Marlins, Reds, and Giants lurking in the wings as well. I think one of those teams will emerge to have a surprisingly strong season.

- Kevin Youkilis was placed on the 15-day DL after missing 7 games with a strained oblique muscle. He should be back within the next week though. Youk was off to a hot start hitting .393 with 6 HR and 20 RBI before the injury.

- Rangers closer Frank Francisco has biceps tendinitis and will miss a few games. Look for C.J. Wilson to fill-in for Francisco in save opportunities. Francisco has been excellent so far this season in 14.2 inning of work he has yet to give up a run and has 9 saves.

- Dontrelle Willis has been activated from the DL and will make his first start of the season today against the Twins. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the performance of Dontrelle.

- The Cardinals placed Ryan Ludwick on the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. Ludwick is hitting .274 with 8 HR and 26 RBI this season and the Cardinals will definitely miss his bat.

- LA Angels ace pitcher John Lackey will return from the DL and start Saturday against the Rangers.

More: MLB & MLB Weekly

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