Truth be told I haven't exactly been keeping up with the weekly part of NBA Weekly, but you can't really blame me, because the last part of this NBA season was boring as hell. Now that the playoffs are here, I was pretty hyped to see the Celtics and Cavs square off, but now KG is probably out for the postseason and that definitely killed some if not all of the hype for that possible series. It looks like we are headed for the inevitable matchups of Lakers vs. Cavs, which may or may not be an entertaining NBA Finals.1st Round Matchups:
Eastern Conference:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Detroit Pistons
Offense Eff.: Cleveland (4) 109.7, Detroit (21) 104.5
Defense Eff.: Cleveland (3) 99.4, Detroit (16) 105.2
Pace: Cleveland (25) 91.2, Detroit (30) 89.1
Analysis: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Detroit Pistons are no longer an elite team in the NBA ranking below average in offense and just about average in defense. Cleveland should have no problem with Pistons in Round 1. This is most likely a sweep or 5 game series at most.
Prediction: Cavs in 4
(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Chicago Bulls
Offense Eff.: Boston (6) 108.1, Chicago (19) 105.1
Defense Eff.: Boston (2) 99.4, Chicago (18) 105.8
Pace: Boston (18) 92.7, Chicago (9) 95.8
Analysis: Now that KG is out for this series there is at least some possibility that this series will be more competitive than originaly thought. The Bulls do have a couple things in common with the Hawks from last season. The first is that they are a younger team that likes to run, since they are 9th in pace this season. They also have some guards who like to penetrate with Derrick Rose, John Salmons, Ben Gordon, and Kurt Hinrich. This could potentially cause a problem for the Celtics. The problem for the Bulls of course is that they don't have the athletes on defense like the Hawks did and the Celtics will most likely be able to score on them whenever they want. I don't see anyone on the Bulls that can check Pierce and Rondo. The best part of this series is going to be the royal rumble beef between Kendrick Perkins/Big Baby and Brad Miller/Joakim Noah.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
(3) Orlando Magic vs (6) Philadelphia 76ers
Offense Eff.: Orlando (8) 107.2, Philadelphia (20) 104.7
Defense Eff.: Orlando (1) 98.9, Philadelphia (14) 104.7
Pace: Orlando (12) 94.6, Philadelphia (20) 92.6
Analysis: Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are both banged up and could miss time in this series. If they were both healthy, than I think Orlando would cruise in this series because they have the top defense in the league and Philly is below average offensively. However, I think Orlando will struggle on the road in this series, which will extend it some. Philly's best chance is to try and slow down Orlando and ugly this thing up. Believe it or not, they actually run less than Orlando, and if they slow things down they will make Dwight Howard less effective offensively, since he doesn't really have any low post moves.
Prediction: Magic in 6
(4) Atlanta Hawks vs (5) Miami Heat
Offense Eff.: Atlanta (10) 106.6, Miami (18) 105.1
Defense Eff.: Atlanta (11) 104.6, Miami (13) 104.7
Pace: Atlanta (24) 92.0, Miami (23) 92.3
Analysis: It's really amazing how even these two teams are and this will be the best 1st Round series in the East for sure. This basically comes down to whether or not Dwyane Wade can takeover the series for Miami or if Atlanta's more balanced attack will win out. As much as I like D-Wade, I think that since Miami counts on a couple of rookies in Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers their inexperience could be what prevents them from winning this series. Both teams struggle on the road, so I think this might be one of those home team wins all the games series.
Prediction: Hawks in 7
Western Conference:
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (8) Utah Jazz
Offense Eff.: Los Angeles (3) 109.8, Utah (9) 107.1
Defense Eff.: Los Angeles (5) 101.9, Utah (12) 104.7
Pace: Los Angeles (6) 96.9, Utah (10) 95.6
Analysis: This is a bad matchup for both teams, since Utah is way better than an 8 seed, but still has to play the best team, and I'm sure the Lakers aren't happy to see Utah in the first round either. Luckily for the Lakers, Utah is really bad on the road sporting a 15-26 record. I think the Lakers will be able to steal one in Utah and the return of Andrew Bynum should help them with Utah's muscle down low.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (7) New Orleans Hornets
Offense Eff.: Denver (7) 107.5, New Orleans (13) 106.2
Defense Eff.: Denver (8) 103.5, New Orleans (9) 104.1
Pace: Denver (5) 97.0, New Orleans (28) 90.0
Analysis: Another great matchup in the West. This is going to be a big series for Carmelo Anthony, who should see a lot of James Posey throughout. I think Carmelo needs to step it up offensively and be the guy for Denver just like Chris Paul is going to do for New Orleans. If Carmelo doesn't play well, then I think the Hornets will win the series. I do like the fact that Billups can probably matchup with Chris Paul pretty well since he's probably physically stronger than Paul. I like Nene down low for Denver as well and along with Chris Andersen & Kenyon Martin, the Nuggets should have enough down low to match Tyson Chandler and David West. This series could come down to who gets hotter from the outside between Rasual Butler/Peja Stojakovic and J.R. Smith/Linas Kleiza. If anyone of them gets ridiculously hot from the outside, then that could definitely swing the series in that teams favor.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
(3) San Antonio Spurs vs (6) Dallas Mavericks
Offense Eff.: San Antonio (12) 106.2, Dallas (5) 108.1
Defense Eff.: San Antonio (6) 102.0, Dallas (17) 105.3
Pace: San Antonio (27) 90.4, Dallas (16) 93.9
Analysis: This should prove to be an interesting series for the Spurs, since they will have to play without Manu Ginoboli and we saw how much that hurt them during the playoffs last season. One thing in the Spurs favor is that Dallas is not the best road team with just a 18-23 record away from home. The Spurs are historically tough to beat in the playoffs when they have home court advantage. The Mavs have also been inconsistent on defense this season ranking only 17th in the NBA. I also think Tony Parker is going to destroy Jason Kidd and I don't see any reason why Tim Duncan won't go off either. Between Roger Mason, Drew Gooden, and Michael Finley I think someone will step up too.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
(4) Portland Trailblazers vs (5) Houston Rockets
Offense Eff.: Portland (2) 110.7, Houston (16) 105.4
Defense Eff.: Portland (10) 104.5, Houston (4) 101.4
Pace: Portland (29) 89.2, Houston (19) 92.7
Analysis: This is going to be a very low scoring series in my mind. You have two of the slower paced teams in the NBA and Houston is a defensive minded team that is just average on offense. If Ron Artest, Shane Battier and company can slow down Brandon Roy then I think Portland could be in trouble because the rest of their squad struggled offensively against the Rockets during the season. Houston's offense definitely concerns me though because outside of Yao Ming they don't really have any big time scorers. I think this is where they miss Tracy McGrady the most because Von Wafer, Aaron Brooks, and company are probably not going to get things done consistently in the playoffs. I really don't like the guard play of the Rockets enough to pick them to win the series because I don't see anyone who can create his own shot in case Yao Ming can't get a good look down low.
Prediction: Trailblazers in 7
2nd Round Predictions:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (4) Atlanta Hawks: Cleveland in 6 since the Hawks have trouble on the road.
(2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Orlando Magic Boston in 7 since the Magic might be just as banged up as the Celtics.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (4) Portland Trailblazers: Lakers in 5 since Portland is not ready to compete in the playoffs with the Lakers.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (3) San Antonio Spurs: Spurs in 7 since they generally have the Nuggets number although I do really like this Nuggets team. I'm not entirely sure they get past New Orleans in the first round though.
Conference Finals Predictions:
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (2) Boston Celtics: Cleveland in 6 since they have homecourt and the Celtics have no KG.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) San Antonio Spurs: Lakers in 6 since San Antonio has no Ginoboli and I think the Spurs will be burnt out from their 2nd round series.
NBA Finals Predictions:
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (1) Cleveland Caveliers: Lakers in 6 since I still say that if Jordan can't win without a Scottie Pippen then neither can Lebron. Plus, I think Bynum gives the Lakers one more weapon then the Cavs can handle.
More: NBA Weekly
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